Three games in and the Jets’ 2020 outlook looks painfully clear.
New York ranks last in offensive points and yards, and Sam Darnold looks lost after another abysmal outing filled with bad decisions and turnovers. With Adam Gase already on the hot seat, it’s clear that the Jets are going nowhere this season.
It’s time for Joe Douglas to start thinking about a future without Darnold as his quarterback. Put another way: it’s time to start thinking about Clemson gunslinger Trevor Lawrence if the Jets secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft.
If the Jets don’t possess the top pick, they should keep Darnold for another season – ideally with a new head coach – and upgrade other positions like wide receiver, offensive line and pass rusher. But if the Jets keep losing and wind up first on the clock when the 2020 season ends on Jan. 3, Douglas should kick his rebuild into overdrive by taking Lawrence.
Darnold may have been a reason why Douglas took the Jets’ general manager job in 2019, but after 16 games of watching him play in Gase’s offense, it’s painfully obvious that at least one of the coach or quarterback need to go. Gase is more easily expendable and replaceable, but Darnold hasn’t proven that he can make the franchise a contender. Despite a few incredible plays, Darnold’s overall performances don’t look any better than his rookie season as he continues to regress more than develop.
Fortunately for Douglas, he won’t need to make a decision on the Jets future until April 29, 2021, and only if they possess the No. 1 pick. But before that day comes, there are some big implications to consider.
For one, the long-term financial implications of the Jets’ future favor drafting Lawrence over keeping Darnold.
Rookie quarterback contracts are among the most valuable possessions of a rebuilding franchise. It assures a team can allocate more money elsewhere if the quarterback they draft plays a high level and doesn’t command a market-level salary. It’s how the Eagles and Rams were able to build Super Bowl teams in such a short span and how the Cowboys annually rank among the best offensive teams in the NFL. Lawrence’s deal would be slightly higher than the four-year, $36 million deal Joe Burrow signed with the Bengals as the No. 1 overall pick in 2020.
Douglas already set the Jets up for salary cap success in the short-term after some shrewd offseason transactions. He signed all of his 2020 free agents to short-term or team-friendly contracts without a lot of guaranteed money and traded away the extension-hungry Jamal Adams. Whether or not dumping Adams for two first-round picks was the right move is beside the point because the Jets will be flush with cash in 2021. Over The Cap estimates New York will have upwards of $56.6 million in space if the salary cap falls to $175 million, and that’s without taking into account the various cost-saving cuts Douglas could make.
If Douglas drafted Lawrence, he’d have a lot more cap room over the next four seasons than he would with Darnold, who’s up for a contract extension as early as this offseason. The Jets aren’t beholden to sign Darnold after three lackluster seasons but they have an important franchise-altering decision to make soon when it comes to his contract if they don’t draft Lawrence. If they did, the choice is simple: keep Darnold on the roster for another year in the hopes he proves the doubters wrong and trade him, or trade him soon after the draft.
This wouldn’t be the first time a team drafted a quarterback in the first round within four years of drafting another. The Cardinals did it in 2019 when they selected Kyler Murray No. 1 overall after taking Josh Rosen the year before.
When a better prospect presents himself, you have to jump on it, and Lawrence is very much the better prospect. He’s a proven winner at the collegiate level with a national championship and only one loss. He’s also an incredibly gifted passer with a rocket arm who’s thrown for more than 7,000 yards and 70 touchdowns with only 12 interceptions in a little over two seasons. He added more than 500 rushing yards with a healthy 5.5 yards per carry. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s slightly bigger than Darnold at 6-foot-6.
Lawrence is considered one of the best young quarterbacks to come out of the college game since Andrew Luck in 2012 and could very well breathe new life into the Jets downtrodden franchise. Given what Darnold has shown thus far, Douglas would be silly to pass on the Clemson star if given the opportunity.