Luke Fickell’s first two seasons as Wisconsin’s head coach have not gone according to plan. The team is 12-13 overall, anchored by a 5-7 2024 campaign that saw the program miss a bowl game for the first time since 2001.
That performance falls far below the expectation set by both Fickell and athletic director Chris McIntosh in November of 2022. Both used the word ‘championships’ throughout Fickell’s introductory press conference, setting the bar at competing for both the Big Ten and the College Football Playoff.
This year’s losses to rivals Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota by a combined margin of 110-42 paint an accurate picture of where things currently stand. For the first time ever, the Badgers failed to retain any of the three rivalry trophies.
The team will now look different entering 2025. Fickell fired offensive coordinator Phil Longo after the Badgers’ narrow Week 12 loss to Oregon. He has since hired Kansas’ Jeff Grimes, a veteran coordinator who is set to return the program to its pro-style roots. That substantial change is somewhat of an admission that the hire of Longo and departure from Wisconsin’s classic identity was a mistake. It also creates a clean slate entering 2025, which will likely be Fickell’s one do-over at the position. It’s rare that coaches get to hire several new coordinators without their own jobs coming into question.
With all of that in mind, ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg released his annual ‘college football coaching hot seat tiers‘ earlier this week. He listed Fickell in a tier titled ‘We want this to work,’ implying that he has extra breathing room given both the school and Mcintosh’s investment in his tenure.
Here is what Rittenberg wrote about the Badgers’ head coach:
When Wisconsin picked Fickell over Jim Leonhard, the hire represented a departure from the Barry Alvarez tree and a bold move toward trying to make the CFP for the first time. Fickell was the top Group of 5 candidate on the market, and implemented different approaches for personnel and scheme, including hiring offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the Air Raid. But things haven’t worked out, as Wisconsin is 13-13 overall and backsliding in a deeper Big Ten.
There are also questions about the program’s identity, which had been chiseled by Alvarez and maintained by his successors. Athletic director Chris McIntosh hired Fickell and will give him every realistic chance to get things on track. But how far can Wisconsin afford to slip?
That last question is the most pertinent to Fickell’s tenure. Wisconsin is set to face a gauntlet schedule in 2025 with games against Alabama, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota. Given that slate and the program’s current form, a return to bowl eligibility could feel like a significant win.
But ‘how far can Wisconsin afford to slip?’ In other words, is there any record or scenario where Fickell is not retained?
As of Jan. 8, 2025, it feels as if that answer is only an extreme drop-off. 3-9 or 2-10 marks would each qualify. But time will tell. It’s challenging to handicap the confluence of factors at play, such as McIntosh’s controversial move to fire Paul Chryst and bold hire of Fickell, the program’s monetary investment in his tenure, Fickell’s strong high school recruiting performance and the Badgers’ numerous narrow losses to top teams.
Rittenberg including Fickell in his ‘hot seat tiers’ means there is at least a conversation to be had. But barring a three-win campaign, any coaching change during or after the 2025 season would be a significant surprise.
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