It’s a topic that comes up all the time whenever a franchise-caliber player, especially at quarterback, suddenly becomes available on the trade block. Is there any price too high to pay for him?
In the case of the Chicago Bears, the answer should be no. But this is the NFL after all, and the value placed on first-round picks and talented young players on team-friendly contracts is often greater than the opportunity to land a player like Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson.
It doesn’t make much sense. First-round picks are generally considered a 50-50 proposition of working out and becoming a long-term fixture on their team, and the odds of landing a franchise quarterback in Round 1 — or any round for that matter — are significantly worse.
Still, it’s those first-round picks that are often teams’ greatest assets.
The Bears are a great example of how valuable first-rounders can be. General manager Ryan Pace flipped two of them into all-world edge rusher Khalil Mack in a trade that, at the time, was considered one of the biggest blockbusters in the league’s modern era.
Players like Mack — and now Watson — rarely, if ever, become available sans an unexpected trip to unrestricted free agency. But that’s a contractual out, not a team deciding it’s time to prematurely part ways.
The Mack trade was celebrated in Chicago and for good reason. For a fan base as in love with elite defense as the Bears’, a player with a Hall of Fame resume like Mack’s was more than just a welcome addition. He was the new face of the franchise.
So think for a minute what it would be like if Pace worked his magic again and landed Watson, who at 25 years old is just tapping into his prime years as a member of the fraternity of elite NFL quarterbacks. Chicago has never had a 4,000-yard passer, let alone a guy who was universally recognized as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
But if it cost Pace two first-round picks for Mack, and it cost the Rams two first-round picks and Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford, what then should the Bears be willing to pony-up for Watson?
Buckle up, Bears fans. It’ll be one of the biggest mortgages in league history.
Let’s begin with the obvious: the draft picks. A deal for Watson starts with the Bears’ 2021, 2022 and 2023 first-round picks. If Stafford can pull two first-rounders, Watson is a three-pick minimum. And remember: the Bears’ pick in 2021 is No. 20 overall. It’s not exactly prime draft real estate.
Still, that won’t be enough to get a deal done. More picks need to be added to this trade soup: 2021 and 2022 second-round picks, and a 2023 third-round pick.
We’re up to six picks — three firsts, two seconds, and a third — and even though that feels like a lot, it’s STILL not enough to get a deal done. At least, not if I were the Texans.
Players. The trade needs players. Houston is a team in rebuild mode and adding a quality young defender (or two) to the mix could push the trade over the top.
Enter Roquan Smith, who despite emerging as the Bears’ best young defensive player in 2020 could be the cherry on top of a trade package that makes Houston say yes.
Let’s review:
Bears get: QB Deshaun Watson
Texans get: LB Roquan Smith, 2021 first-round pick, 2021 second-round pick, 2022 first-round pick, 2022 second-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2023 third-round pick.
Is that too much? Will the Bears be closer to a Super Bowl in 2024 with Deshaun Watson and no first-round rookie in three consecutive drafts than they would be if they stayed the course and found QB-next elsewhere?
It isn’t an easy question to answer, but I’ll offer this for you to ponder: The Bears have never — ever — had a quarterback like Watson. They’ve tried a variety of ways to fix the quarterback position, whether it was first-round investments, trades, and even free agency. It hasn’t happened. Ever.
So if you think the Bears will suddenly unlock the secret quarterback code over the next three seasons, then sure, they shouldn’t make a trade like this.
But Bears fans know better. They’ve suffered long enough through the Rex Grossmans and Kyle Ortons and Jay Cutlers and Mitch Trubiskys.
It’s time to end the suffering and pay the price — whatever the price is — for Watson.