Everyone has been asking this question over the past week: Why is Dan Lanning right or wrong (on 4th downs)? We wanted our Pac-12 football panel to tackle this one after the Oregon-Washington game:
Matt Zemek: Here’s the deal. Analytics are good. They provide information and resources to coaches. Staffs should definitely study this stuff in the offseason and develop a philosophy which incorporates this data into decision-making processes. However, there are some times when common sense — not analytics — should tell a coach to do something.
When trailing by 11 points, a team should generally kick a field goal because it changes the margin from a two-score deficit to a one-score deficit. I don’t care what the analytics say. If you’re down by 11, 10 or 9, kicking a field goal (to trail by 8, 7 or 6) contains immense value. The same goes for leading by 6, 7, or 8. Kicking a field goal when leading by those margins — to lead by 9, 10 or 11 points — is hugely valuable.
Most of Lanning’s choices were fine, but not kicking the field goal when down 11 (29-18) in the third quarter really did bother me. Use analytics as a guide, but not the Holy Bible. Use analytics as a resource, not as the final authority on everything.
Zachary Neel: You love it if it works, and you hate it if it doesn’t. Dan Lanning has been ultra aggressive in his young career and been right for the most part. I agree with his decisions to trust his players and try to win the game. Going into the game, Oregon was 8-for-10 on 4th downs this year. They went 0-for-3 on Saturday. I think if you gave Lanning another crack at those decisions, he would do the same thing again, and I wouldn’t argue with it.
Matt Wadleigh: Dan Lanning might be the college version of Brandon Staley. He sticks to his guns. And, if it works out, you’re happy. If it doesn’t, you are upset. Nonetheless, he’s going to stay aggressive.
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