Is Carson Wentz back?

Carson Wentz has played good football the past few weeks. Is it time to buy in?

Has Frank Reich done the seemingly impossible, and fixed quarterback Carson Wentz?

Perhaps.

There is evidence to conclude that Wentz has turned things around in Indianapolis, and it starts with his performance two weeks ago against the Miami Dolphins. In guiding the Colts to their first win of the season, the passer completed 24 of 32 passes for 228 yards and a pair of touchdowns, for a single-game QBR of 79.8.

That QBR is his best single-game mark since a loss last year to the Pittsburgh Steelers on October 11th. In nearly a full calendar year.

In the win you started to see a more decisive Wentz, like on this deep crossing route to tight end Mo Alie-Cox:

Wentz opens to his left to read the Peel (post/wheel) concept to the left side of the formation. But the Dolphins do a good job at matching the routes in their Cover-3 scheme, with the cornerback staying on top of the post and the slot defender buying the wheel and sticking on it. So the quarterback gets to the backside dig route (hat tip to Seth Galina) and makes the right read and a good throw to move the chains.

Later in that game, you saw a decisive Wentz working the post/over combination off of play-action, coming up firing after turning his back to the defense to carry out the run fakes:

Again, Wentz spots the defense in a single-high scheme, this time Cover 1. He sees the cornerback stick on the deep post route and the post safety keep his depth, so he brings his eyes down to Zach Pascal on the over route, hitting it for a huge gain.

That decisiveness continued into Week 5, in a losing effort against the Baltimore Ravens. Despite the loss Wentz had perhaps his best game with a horseshoe on his helmet, completing 25 of 35 passes for 402 yards (a whopping 11.5 yards per attempt) and a pair of touchdowns, without an interception. In fact, Wentz has not throw a pick since Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams, and that is to date his only interception of the season.

Wentz came out firing to start the third quarter with two impressive plays. First was this out pattern to Pascal off of play-action:

The quarterback makes this throw with good timing and rhythm, as the ball is coming out almost immediately after he hits his final step of his drop. He also leads Pascal towards the sideline and away from the defender, putting the wideout in position for yardage after the catch.

Wentz followed that up with this deep shot to Michael Pittman Jr. for a 41-yard score:

This is a nice variation of the post/over combination shown earlier, with Parris Campbell running the deep over route and Pittman starting off like he is running the post pattern over the top. Instead of that, however, Pittman breaks it off and angles back towards the sideline on the deep corner route. The Ravens bring a Cover 0 blitz on this play, and Wentz has to navigate pressure in the pocket and makes this throw with a defender bearing down on him, but it goes the distance for a big Indianapolis touchdown.

Wentz continued his solid state of play early on Sunday against the Houston Texans. First he connected with Campbell on this beautiful 51-yard deep shot:

The receiver worked his way behind the defense and Wentz, after a run fake followed by a deep drop into the pocket, dropped in a beautiful rainbow of a throw for the touchdown.

Then, Wentz connected with T.Y. Hilton on another deep shot for a huge play:

So, given the past ten quarters or so, is Wentz back? Has Reich done the impossible?

I’m not ready to go that far, yet.

Six of those quarters have come against the now 1-5 Dolphins and the struggling Houston Texans. While Wentz did have a good outing against the Ravens, there were still some mistakes in that game, such as a head-scratcher of a sack late that was negated by a curious horse collar call on the defender.

And currently, the Colts are locked in a dogfight with the Texans as the first half winds down, so it’s not exactly like he’s lighting Houston up.

Still, you can not ignore how Wentz has looked recently. This spring, when I did a deep dive into his career arc and the reunion with Reich, I stated that I was cautiously optimistic that he could turn things around in Indianapolis. Now? I’m slightly more optimistic, but having been burned before, I’m waiting to fully buy in.

But I’m getting closer with each drive.