Iowa vs. Illinois odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and predictions.

The No. 6 Iowa Hawkeyes (21-7, 14-6 Big 10) play the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (21-6, 16-4) Saturday in the semifinals of the Big 10 Men’s College Basketball Tournament in Indianapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Iowa-Illinois odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Iowa vs. Illinois: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Iowa +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Illinois -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Iowa +4.5 (-115) | Illinois -4.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 155.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Iowa vs. Illinois: Three things to know

  1. Iowa defeated Wisconsin in back-to-back games including by a 62-57 count in the Big 10 tourney quarterfinals. Iowa pushed on the spread as a 5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes won eight of their last nine games (5-3-1 ATS) with the only loss being a 22-point whooping by then-No. 3 Michigan Feb. 25.
  2. Illinois demolished Rutgers 90-68 yesterday for its fifth consecutive win and cover. The Fighting Illini have won 12 of their last 13 games by an average score of 78.8-67.8, which includes an 80-75 home victory over the Hawkeyes as 3-point favorites in late January.
  3. Prior to the Fighting Illini’s win and ATS victory over the Hawkeyes Jan. 29, Iowa covered the spread in three of four games and won five of six outright.

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Iowa vs. Illinois: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Illinois 82, Iowa 75

Money line (ML)

PASS on taking Illinois (-185) straight up but I wouldn’t hate including the Fighting Illini’s money line in a parlay with Wichita State or Arkansas for a plus-money payout.

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Against the spread (ATS)

There are very few teams in the nation with a big capable of making Iowa’s Wooden Award finalist Luka Garza work like Illinois C Kofi Cockburn can.

Garza is the only player in the Big 10 with a higher PER than Cockburn and Cockburn leads the conference in effective field-goal percentage and rebounds per game. Also, Cockburn has a better defensive rating and more defensive win shares than Garza.

And we haven’t even mentioned the Fighting Illini’s other All-Big 10 first-team player, G Ayo Dosunmu, who joins Garza and Cockburn as a Wooden Award finalist.

BET ILLINOIS -4.5 (-105) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both teams play at an above-average pace and shoot the ball exceptionally well, but turn their opponents over at a very low rate.

I can only lean OVER 155.5 (-110) for a tiny wager if at all because the Hawkeyes have gone Under in eight of their last 10 games, and three of the previous four Iowa-Illinois games have gone Under.

Plus, the Fighting Illini’s offense has the 20th-best FTA/FG rate while the Hawkeyes are seventh in defensive FTA/FG rate, according to Ken Pom.

Lastly, Illinois’ 37th-ranked defensive 3-points per field-goal attempt rate should make it difficult for an Iowa team ninth in 3-point percentage to get quality looks.

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