The No. 6 Iowa Hawkeyes (21-7, 14-6 Big 10) play the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (21-6, 16-4) Saturday in the semifinals of the Big 10 Men’s College Basketball Tournament in Indianapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Iowa-Illinois odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.
Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Iowa vs. Illinois: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Iowa +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Illinois -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Iowa +4.5 (-115) | Illinois -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 155.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Iowa vs. Illinois: Three things to know
- Iowa defeated Wisconsin in back-to-back games including by a 62-57 count in the Big 10 tourney quarterfinals. Iowa pushed on the spread as a 5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes won eight of their last nine games (5-3-1 ATS) with the only loss being a 22-point whooping by then-No. 3 Michigan Feb. 25.
- Illinois demolished Rutgers 90-68 yesterday for its fifth consecutive win and cover. The Fighting Illini have won 12 of their last 13 games by an average score of 78.8-67.8, which includes an 80-75 home victory over the Hawkeyes as 3-point favorites in late January.
- Prior to the Fighting Illini’s win and ATS victory over the Hawkeyes Jan. 29, Iowa covered the spread in three of four games and won five of six outright.
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Iowa vs. Illinois: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Illinois 82, Iowa 75
Money line (ML)
PASS on taking Illinois (-185) straight up but I wouldn’t hate including the Fighting Illini’s money line in a parlay with Wichita State or Arkansas for a plus-money payout.
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Against the spread (ATS)
There are very few teams in the nation with a big capable of making Iowa’s Wooden Award finalist Luka Garza work like Illinois C Kofi Cockburn can.
Garza is the only player in the Big 10 with a higher PER than Cockburn and Cockburn leads the conference in effective field-goal percentage and rebounds per game. Also, Cockburn has a better defensive rating and more defensive win shares than Garza.
And we haven’t even mentioned the Fighting Illini’s other All-Big 10 first-team player, G Ayo Dosunmu, who joins Garza and Cockburn as a Wooden Award finalist.
BET ILLINOIS -4.5 (-105) for 1 unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both teams play at an above-average pace and shoot the ball exceptionally well, but turn their opponents over at a very low rate.
I can only lean OVER 155.5 (-110) for a tiny wager if at all because the Hawkeyes have gone Under in eight of their last 10 games, and three of the previous four Iowa-Illinois games have gone Under.
Plus, the Fighting Illini’s offense has the 20th-best FTA/FG rate while the Hawkeyes are seventh in defensive FTA/FG rate, according to Ken Pom.
Lastly, Illinois’ 37th-ranked defensive 3-points per field-goal attempt rate should make it difficult for an Iowa team ninth in 3-point percentage to get quality looks.
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