Iowa Overs: CBS Sports picks Hawkeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers to light up the scoreboard

Are we living in a parallel universe? Just 12 months ago, the Iowa Hawkeyes were setting records for the all-time lowest point total set in college football games.

Fast forward to now and Iowa is among those that are hitting the over on their point totals with ease. The Hawkeyes have a competent offense that can churn up yards and find the endzone this year. They are lighting up the scoreboard much more than in past years.

That trend is one that CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli wants to rely on. He has picked Iowa versus the Wisconsin Badgers as his “Over of the Week.”

Wisconsin at Iowa: We’re back on the Iowa Overs Train! We left it out of the column last week because Northwestern has been killing overs all year, but they couldn’t derail the Iowa Over Train. The Hawkeyes put up 40 points for the third time this season against the Wildcats, and more importantly, they made a QB switch to Brendan Sullivan. Sullivan will start again this week, and while I won’t pretend he’s going to reinvent Iowa’s passing offense, his presence does make Iowa’s strength — its rushing offense — even stronger.

Kaleb Johnson has been mostly unstoppable with a statue in Cade McNamara at QB. Now that defenses have to account for the legs of Sullivan, too, it’ll cause linebackers to hesitate on those outside zone runs just a little longer, which will open lanes more frequently for Johnson to exploit. As for Wisconsin, yes, the offense came back to earth last week against a good Penn State defense, and now it’s on the road against a good Iowa defense. Still, this unit has shown an ability to hit big plays and should be effective enough to help us reach the betting over here. We’re not asking for a lot! The Pick: Over 40.5 – Fornelli, CBS Sports

Fornelli’s analysis is spot on and something we saw last week. Aside from one breakaway run in the first half, Kaleb Johnson was bottled up by Northwestern.

As soon as Brendan Sullivan entered the game, Johnson found two more creases to put the game away and continue his monster year. That can be partially credited to Sullivan’s mobility, which adds another wrinkle to Iowa’s offense, and the offensive line getting a push.

Wisconsin isn’t bad at defending the run, but they will give up some yards and that is how Iowa wants to make their hay. With Sullivan able to stretch the defense and always bring the threat of keeping it, the Badgers’ linebackers have to hesitate and that is all it takes.

Reaching 40.5 total points is not a tall mountain to climb and is a number that the Hawkeyes have seen surpassed in six of their eight games this year.