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The Iowa Hawkeyes (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) and the Wisconsin Badgers (4-1, 2-0) meet Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Iowa vs. Wisconsin odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Hawkeyes head into Madison looking to secure the Heartland Trophy, awarded to the winner in this annual rivalry. More importantly, Iowa can pull into a tie for first place in the Big Ten’s West Division and perhaps the best avenue to the Big Ten Championship Game, as everyone else in the division has at least 2 losses in conference play already.
Iowa picked up a 20-14 win over Purdue last time out, cashing as a 1.5-point favorite. It has back-to-back conference wins over Purdue and Michigan State, bouncing back from a 31-0 dusting at Penn State on Sept. 23.
The Hawkeyes are 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5 games. The Under and Over has alternated in the past 5 outings. However, the Under is 2-0 in Iowa’s pair of road games this season.
Wisconsin picked up a 24-13 win over Rutgers last time out, just missing the cover as a 13-point favorite. The Badgers have struggled against the number this season, going just 1-3-1 ATS in 5 games overall, including 0-2-1 ATS in 3 games at Camp Randall. The Under has cashed in Wisconsin’s past 2 home games, too.
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Iowa at Wisconsin odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Iowa +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Wisconsin -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Iowa +9.5 (-110) | Wisconsin -9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 34.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Iowa at Wisconsin picks and predictions
Prediction
Wisconsin 23, Iowa 16
Moneyline
Wisconsin (-350) will cost you 3 1/2 times your potential return, which is way too much risk in a big conference showdown. The Badgers have won the past 3 games by 11 or more points, but Iowa is a disciplined and strong defensive team that has really had just one poor game.
You can’t play the Hawkeyes straight up, but they should keep it pretty close.
PASS.
Against the spread
IOWA +9.5 (-110) grabbed QB Cade McNamara in the transfer portal from Michigan in the offseason and while he hasn’t made the Hawkeyes offense prolific, it’s night and day improved over last season. It doesn’t put all of the pressure on its defense, and can actually score a respectable amount of points.
Iowa has scored 20 or more points in 5 of its 6 games, which keeps it in games because the defense is still solid. The Hawkeyes are 3-1-1 ATS in the past 5 games overall.
The Hawkeyes have won 2 of the past 3 games in the series, both at home, while Iowa is 3-1 ATS in the past 4 meetings.
Over/Under
OVER 34.5 (-105) is the lean as this is a super low number.
The Under has cashed in 3 straight meetings in this series, with exactly 34 total points in the past 2 games, and 35 or fewer points in each of the past 3 battles.
However, Iowa is averaging a respectable 23.0 PPG in the past 2 games, while notching 20 or more points in 5 of 6 games overall.
Wisconsin has scored 22 or more points in all 5 games while yielding at least 13 points in each game this season.
We’re not going to see a high-scoring battle, but this isn’t going to be a low-scoring defensive slog in the 20s or low 30s, either. Look for this game to approach the 40-point total mark, which would cash the Over.
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