Through the first two games of the 2022 season, the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals rank dead last in Offensive DVOA. Joe Burrow is the worst quarterback by DYAR, Football Outsiders’ cumulative opponent-adjusted efficiency metric, and only pre-injury Dak Prescott, and Chicago’s Justin Fields, are worse among quarterbacks in DVOA, which is FO’s per-play metric.
This is not what we expected. But it appears to be what defensive coaches playing the Bengals have expected, and are eager to exploit. Against the Steelers and the Cowboys, the now 0-2 Bengals have been a disaster on offense, and while it’s common to blame the offensive line for Burrow’s troubles — and that’s legitimate to a point as it was last season — there’s one particular defense that’s got head coach Zac Taylor’s offense on a spit.
So far this season, Cover-2 — zone defense with two deep safeties — has been Burrow’s bete noire, and opposing teams are well aware of it. No quarterback has more dropbacks against Cover-2 than Burrow’s 35, and he’s completed 16 of 25 passes against Cover-2 for 182 yards, 117 air yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, seven sacks, nine pressures, and a passer rating of 46.2. For the more metrically minded among us, Burrow’s EPA against Cover-2 is -14.79, by far the NFL’s worst. Daniel Jones of the Giants ranks second-worst at -11.66.
We do not talk about Justin Fields and Daniel Jones as top-five quarterbacks. We do talk about Burrow in that realm, but in 2022, he hasn’t looked like it at all. There are many reasons for this, but I want to focus on the one defensive scheme that has this offense — and its quarterback — in all kinds of trouble.
All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).