Rumors are a funny thing. Given enough time, they can take on a life of their own, turn left and right, head in unexpected directions, and go full circle. We’ve recently had one of these appear as all of the possible machinations for such rumor-related things have been associated with 2021 NTT IndyCar Series champion and current championship leader Alex Palou, who spent the month of May having his name attached to a wide array of future options to choose from.
After going through a contentious affair last year where he tried to leave his current team, Palou’s impending departure from Chip Ganassi Racing at the end of the current season for Arrow McLaren has been a foregone conclusion. But the first hot rumor to circulate Gasoline Alley last month called that inevitability into question, and involved the Spaniard asking CGR if it would be possible to cancel his exit plan and stay in the No. 10 Honda.
On the surface, it makes complete sense. He’s won two of seven races so far, earned pole position at the Indy 500, holds a stout 51-point lead over teammate Marcus Ericsson, and has yet to finish lower than eighth at any round. If you were chasing more IndyCar titles, willfully giving up the No. 10 car would be an epically dumb decision.
Meanwhile, his anticipated landing spot at Arrow McLaren has yet to win a race with any of its three drivers and the best of the bunch, Pato O’Ward, is a distant fifth in the championship.
But for a few changes of fortune, Arrow McLaren could easily have a win or two this year, so there isn’t a huge gap between the two organizations, but it’s hard to make the argument that, as things stand today, Palou would be leaving CGR for a better team. And with that in mind, the Palou-wants-to-stay rumor made too much sense to instantly dismiss.
Palou, to his credit, has held the line on answering such things in any detail; he’ll flash a polite smile and give what’s become a familiar answer about choosing to focus on the season in front of him instead of speaking to where he’ll be driving in 2024. Nonetheless, the Palou-wants-to-stay routine was rather strong at Indy.
And as often happens with rumors, the exact opposite scenario was next to make the rounds. CGR was said to offer a sizable sum to keep Palou in the No. 10 car as part of a multi-year extension to replace his current one-year deal that expires at the end of the season.
So, in a matter of weeks, we had the driver asking to stay, and then we had the polar opposite, with the team, not the driver, making an outreach and throwing a Hail Mary to keep Palou from defecting to an archrival. And next, we have the most recent rumor, which takes us in that unexpected direction.
What if Palou isn’t staying with CGR and isn’t heading to Arrow McLaren? What if his management team, as I’ve been told by more than a few insiders, have been working their contacts in Formula 1, visiting with teams at F1 events, to find their client — who continues to possess a Super License — a new home in F1?
As the story has been told, Palou is dead set on racing in F1, and at the relatively advanced age — at least in grand prix circles — of 26, he’s in a now-or-never window of opportunity. Staying with CGR, regardless of how much money he might be offered, ends any hopes of being a full-time F1 driver. And with McLaren having star driver Lando Norris and newcomer Oscar Piastri under long-term F1 deals, signing with McLaren would also seemingly offer no hope of racing for the team in F1 unless Norris or Piastri get the boot or somehow engineer their way out of the team.
Which one of the three scenarios seems more likely for Palou than the others?
Stay with CGR in IndyCar? Sign with McLaren, race in IndyCar, and ride the F1 bench, barring the occasional test outings? Or go searching for something new in F1 outside of McLaren that comes with no limitations, provided an interested party can be found, and have the two IndyCar options to fall back on if the door to an F1 race seat fails to materialize?
Of the three, the latter is the one I’d go with if my heart was set on making one final push to compete in F1, and as my F1 sources have said, Palou’s management team has been very active in the grand prix paddock and meeting with teams that might have openings in 2024. And if that falls through, Arrow McLaren would be the next-closest thing to F1, which could lead us right back to where we started and things going full circle with Palou moving across from CGR at the end of September.
Will I be shocked if Palou’s dressed in McLaren’s papaya orange for 2024 and beyond? Not at all. But he’s also the king of surprises. The same guy who came out of nowhere to become an IndyCar champion in his sophomore season, and then tried to conjure an early departure from his title-winning team to race for McLaren in 2023, is certainly capable of authoring another unforeseen shocker.
Let’s turn away from Palou, but stick with Arrow McLaren.
In a podcast that aired a few weeks prior to the Indy 500, I explored the stated interest of the Indiana-based team to expand to four cars, and asked whether it was truly feasible in the short term due to the lack of shop space at its current home. Since then, Arrow McLaren announced it would be taking over Andretti Autosport’s current shop — which is much larger than its own — at some point in 2025 which, in theory, is when housing a four-car operation would become possible.
And in that early May episode, I wondered aloud as to whether the best way for Arrow McLaren to grow beyond its existing trio (and take advantage of the added income that awaits being applied to a fourth car through new and existing sponsors) would come from establishing a relationship with another team to field a fourth car on its behalf.
Like Palou and his upcoming plans, there were no answers forthcoming on whether Arrow McLaren would try to develop its version of a Red Bull/Alpha Tauri junior team dynamic. But it’s not hard to imagine a mid-field Chevy-powered team, in need of solid income and a significant rise in competitiveness, loving the notion of being paid to field a car for Arrow McLaren from its base and under its tent at each round.
In theory, when 2025 or 2026 arrives, Arrow McLaren would have everything it needs to run four cars or more from its new shop, but if there’s a desire to grow before then, the concept of developing an affiliate program to carry the load could have merit.
And who might drive a fourth Arrow McLaren entry next year? Let’s save that for our next silly season piece.
We still have major driver business waiting to be done at Andretti and CGR, which we’ve chronicled in recent silly season missives. Specific to CGR, it’s rather crazy to think it could be missing Palou and Ericsson — the two leading drivers in the championship — when we reconvene next year, but that’s a very real possibility.
Let’s close on the unfortunate turn of events for Ed Carpenter Racing and Conor Daly.
In concert with the month-long Palou rumors, there was a growing frequency of comments and suggestions in May that all was not well in the relationship between Daly and ECR. In overstating the obvious, if all was well, the relationship would not have ended, but we now have the rare situation of a driver change happening before the halfway point of the season and a sour feeling from all sides.
The press release from ECR spoke to a need for alterations to make the program more than occasionally competitive, and while true, it bypassed the interpersonal aspects of the breakdown between the driver and team. Finer details on the matter, and Daly’s side of the situation to clarify or correct any inaccuracies, are unlikely to be heard anytime soon.
Although the release contained a quote from Daly, it said nothing and fell in line with similar statements from those who’ve gone through the same career-altering ordeal. And why won’t we hear Daly at full volume on what really went down?
Ask Sebastien Bourdais after Dale Coyne decided to end their relationship — despite the Frenchman holding a valid contract — or Zach Veach, who was parked prior to the end of the season by Michael Andretti; compliance and silence is the price they must pay in order to receive the rest of their annual salary.
It’s an unseemly part of the business, but it’s also an age-old practice where each driver is faced with speaking their truth and kissing hundreds of thousands of dollars or maybe more than a million goodbye, or keeping their mouth shut, stewing in private, and collecting what could be their last big payday as a professional race car driver.
The silly season is incredibly active, but we’ve yet to reach the point where real moves and major disruption has happened. It won’t be long, however, until the paddock is turned upside down.
