The Indianapolis Colts will ride a two-game winning streak into Jacksonville to face the winless Jaguars–although we all know that road games in Jacksonville haven’t been very kind to Indianapolis.
Every week there are always a number of factors that end up determining the outcome of a game. However, there are certain matchups that will carry more weight and a greater impact than others.
If the Colts are going to snap their nine-game losing streak in Jacksonville, winning these three matchups, in particular, will go a long way in helping them accomplish that.
WR Brian Thomas vs. Colts cornerbacks
Rookie receiver Brian Thomas has been a favorite target of Trevor Lawrence, currently ranked second on the team in targets with 26 through four games, and has provided the passing game with a big play threat. Thomas will enter Sunday’s game with 17 receptions, averaging 16.2 yards per catch. His four receptions on passes of 20-plus yards are tied for the fifth-most among receivers.
The cornerback position for the Colts remains shorthanded with JuJu Brents on IR and Kenny Moore already ruled out. Thomas lines up on both the right and left sides of the field, so both Sam Womack and Jaylon Jones will have to contend with him. The 7.1 yards per pass attempt that the Colts are allowing this season ranks 25th in the NFL.
Although the Jaguars offense has had its ups and downs, the combination of Lawrence and Thomas can provide a big play spark at any time.
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby vs. Colts run defense
Even while dealing with injuries up front, the Colts run defense has very much improved over the last two weeks–although this group faces another big test on Sunday. The Jaguars will enter Week 5 averaging 5.7 yards per rush as a team, the second-most in football.
Leading the way in terms of carries is Travis Etienne, who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 46 rushes. Jacksonville also has Tank Bigsy, who is averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per carry on 21 attempts. Collectively, the Jaguars 14 rushes of 10-plus yards is the seventh-most.
As we saw in Weeks 1 and 2 when the Colts struggled to stop the run, there is a negative trickle-down effect to the rest of the defense because facing short down-and-distances regularly gives the offense the advantage. Not to mention it can result in a lopsided time of possession battle, taking away opportunities from the Colts’ offense.
Colts’ WRs vs. Jaguars CBs
Regardless of whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco under center for the Colts, this could be a pass-heavy game for the offense–especially with Jonathan Taylor out.
The Jaguars enter Week 5 allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, but 7.7 yards per pass, which ranks 30th. The 18 passes of 20-plus yards given up are also the second-most this season.
In addition to all of that, the Jaguars secondary has forced just eight combined pass breakups in four games, according to PFF, and no interceptions. In terms of matchup advantages that the Colts will want to exploit, this is a big one.