The Indiana Pacers (14-23) travel to the Big Apple Tuesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the New York Knicks (17-20) at Madison Square Garden. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Knicks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Indiana has lost four straight with the most recent being a 108-104 loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers Sunday, pushing as a 4-point road underdog.
The Pacers are 1-5 straight-up (SU), 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the past two weeks with the 24th-ranked adjusted net rating at minus-5.5 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
New York has lost back-to-back road games at the Oklahoma City Thunder 95-80 on New Year’s Eve and at the Toronto Raptors 120-105 Sunday.
The Knicks are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 2-5 O/U in the last 14 days with the 12th-best adjusted net rating at plus-1.8 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.
These teams split the first two meetings of the season with the home team winning and covering both.
Pacers at Knicks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Pacers -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Knicks -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +1.5 (-112) | Knicks -1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Pacers at Knicks key injuries
Pacers
- SG Jeremy Lamb (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Caris LeVert (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Malcolm Brogdon (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Chris Duarte (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Kelan Martin (health and safety protocols) out
- C Goga Bitadze (health and safety protocols) out
Knicks
- C Mitchell Robinson (reconditioning) questionable
- PG Derrick Rose (ankle) out
- PF Julius Randle (health and safety protocols) out
- C Nerlens Noel (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Kemba Walker (knee) out
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Pacers at Knicks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Knicks 105, Pacers 101
Money line
BET the KNICKS (-117) because Indiana’s absences loom larger than New York’s. The Pacers are missing three of their top-four players in terms of adjusted on/off net rating in LeVert, Lamb and Brogdon (CTG).
While the absence of Randle definitely lowers New York’s ceiling in the long term, Randle hasn’t made a big difference thus far.
Randle ranks in the first percentile of adjusted on/off net rating for forwards at minus-19.5 points per 100 possessions (CTG) and his replacement in the starting 5 — PF Obi Toppin — grades in the 97th percentile in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-16.9 points per 100 possessions (CTG).
Furthermore, Kemba’s and DRose’s injuries have led to the emergence of rookie Knicks PG Miles McBride and the increased usage of Knicks SG Alec Burks.
McBride has only clocked 111 minutes of action but he grades in the 99th percentile of point guards in on/off net rating at plus-26.5 points per 100 possessions and Burks grades in the 79th percentile of wings in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-6.0 points per 100 possessions (CTG).
Indiana has also been awful on the road this season. The Pacers are 3-14 SU and 7-10 ATS on the road with the 21st-ranked adjusted net rating and 26th-ranked spread differential (CTG).
BET the KNICKS (-117).
Against the spread
PASS since New York’s money line is only 9 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Knicks -1.5 (-108). There’s no point in fussing with the spread when the money line is this cheap comparatively.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 206.5 (-112) for a half-unit because most of the trends suggest this will be a low-scoring game and both teams play at a bottom seven pace.
Indiana has gone Under the total in eight of its past nine as a road underdog and New York has gone Under the total in its last four games as a favorite and four of the past five games overall. Both teams are also missing key ball handlers that help each side get into their offensive sets.
My hesitation with the UNDER 206.5 (-112) is that it feels too easy.
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