The Indiana Pacers (6-8) are in the “Big Apple” Monday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the New York Knicks (7-6) at Madison Square Garden. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Knicks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Indiana has won three of its past four games including back-to-back victories at the Utah Jazz Thursday and against the Philadelphia 76ers Saturday. The Pacers are 8-6 ATS and 5-9 O/U and are tied with the 14th-ranked net rating (plus-0.2).
New York has lost three of four including the past two against the Milwaukee Bucks Wednesday and at the Charlotte Hornets Friday. The Knicks are 6-7 ATS and 6-7 O/U and also are tied with the 14th-ranked net rating (plus-0.2).
The Pacers crushed the Knicks 111-98 as 1-point home favorites earlier this year (Nov. 3).
The Knicks beat the Pacers 2-1 (overall and ATS) in their regular-season series last year. The Under went 2-1 in those three contests.
Pacers at Knicks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pacers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Knicks -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +3.5 (-107) | Knicks -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pacers at Knicks key injuries
Pacers
- SG Chris Duarte (ankle) questionable
- SF T.J. Warren (foot) out
Knicks
- C Nerlens Noel (knee) questionable
Pacers at Knicks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Knicks 113, Pacers 108
Money line
“LEAN” to the KNICKS (-170) to bounce back in their second meeting of the season with the Pacers (+135) because there’s been a “sharp line move” towards New York. For instance, the Knicks opened as -135 money line favorite before the markets steamed them up to the current price.
Furthermore, the Knicks are a deeper team than the Pacers. New York’s bench averages the fourth-most points per game (PPG) and has the second-best plus/minus. While Indiana’s bench is 18th in plus/minus and averages the 21st-most PPG.
Also, in the first Pacers-Knicks meeting this season, New York had more points off of turnovers, second-chance points and paint points than Indiana.
However, Pacers big Myles Turner connected on 7-of-10 3-pointers and the Knicks shot just 20.8% from behind the arc as a team.
I expect Indiana’s 3-point shooting to regress a tad in this game and New York to have a better 3-point shooting night.
Against the spread
PASS since I’m paying -170 for New York’s money line to avoid having to lay it with the Knicks -3.5 (-115). On top of that, the Pacers are 4-1 ATS as a road underdog and the Knicks are 2-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Over/Under
BET the OVER 213.5 (-110) for a 1 unit as a “fade against the market”, which is betting the Under at a 90-plus-percent clip, according to Pregame.com.
The first Pacers-Knicks meeting went Under the total because of atrocious outside shooting by New York yet Monday’s meeting opened with a 217.5-point total. That tells me the oddsmakers were expecting a bounce-back shooting performance from the Knicks but the market has “recency bias”.
However, both offenses have a top-10 3-point shooting percentage and both defenses have a bottom-10 3-point shooting percentage.
Lastly, the bottom line is there’s been too much movement on this total considering the 3-point shooting head-to-head and the expectation these teams will play more halfcourt basketball.
The OVER 213.5 (-110) is my favorite play in this Pacers-Knicks game.
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