(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at how the Jets struggled in the passing game in 2019 and how they might fix it in 2020).
It was the mic’d up moment that spawned a movement.
In Week 7 of the 2019 NFL season, the New York Jets hosted their rivals the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold was playing in just his third game of the season, having been sidelined for three weeks due to a bout with mononucleosis. While the Jets were struggling at that point in the season, the Patriots were riding high, thanks to the league’s best defense.
What played out on that Monday night was certainly the stuff of nightmares for a young quarterback. Darnold threw four interceptions and failed to crack the 40% completion mark in the contest, and at one point was caught on the sidelines while mic’d up saying to himself: “I’m seeing ghosts out there.”
That comment, a moment of honest introspection from a young passer, spawned the creation of a nickname for the Patriots’ defense, who started referring to themselves as the Boogeymen. Perfect for T-shirts, and conveniently enough, just in time for Halloween.
Now one night at MetLife Stadium generally does not a season make, but there is no denying the fact that the Jets’ passing game was certainly spooky last season. We can start with one number before branching out to tell the complete story: 4.80. That is the Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) for the Jets’ passing game last season. Where does that rank? 30th out of the 32 teams in the league. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers (relying on Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck” Hodges) and the Carolina Panthers (who rolled out a combination of Cam Newton, Kyle Allen and Will Grier) were worse as a team, posting numbers of 4.60 and 4.40 respectively.
First, a word about ANY/A. In today’s football media space there are any number of metrics or statistics available as an attempt to measure quarterback play. Whether traditional Passer Rating, QBR, Expected Points Added per Dropback, or ANY/A, each statistic has its benefits but also some flaws. ANY/A attempts to measure quarterback play by looking at passing yardage, passing touchdown, interceptions, attempts, sacks and sack yardage. it might not capture every element of playing the position – not many statistics do – but is is a solid measuring stick for examining quarterback performance.
If you want to branch out, perhaps because of some skepticism regarding ANY/A, there are no shortage of metrics that illustrate the problems with the Jets’ passing game in 2019. You can look at Yards per Attempt, where the Jets posted a mark of 6.6, good for 27th in the league. How about Adjusted Yards per Attempt, where the 6.0 number was good enough for 28th in the league? Maybe you prefer the traditional quarterback rating. There the Jets landed 27th once more, with a rating of 80.6. Finally, Pro Football Reference also tracks Expected Points Contributed by a passing game. The Jets in 2019? -54.05.
Dead last.
Not all of this can be laid at the feet of New York’s young gunslinger. While Darnold was out for that four-game stretch, Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk started in this place, with Siemian starting one game (and leaving early due to an injury after throwing just six passes) and Falk starting the other two. During their time on the field, Siemian completed three of six passes for thee yards, and a massive ANY/A of -1.75. Falk, over his three games, completed 47 of 73 passes for 416 yards and three interceptions (without a touchdown). That amounted to a staggering AY/A of just 3.8, and an ANY/A of 2.08.
But it’s not like Darnold was that much better. Over the course of his 13 starts, Darnold completed 61.9% of his passes for 3,024 yards and 19 touchdowns, with 13 interceptions. His AY/A of 6.4 was certainly an improvement, as was his ANY/A of 5.50. But those are still not great numbers in the grand scheme of things. That AY/A of 6.4 placed Darnold 27th in the league, and his ANY/A landed him in the 25th spot.
Let’s try now to figure out how things went bad for the Jets’ passing game in 2019. We can start with protection woes. The Jets allowed 52 sacks last season, fourth-most in the league. One can certainly make the case that sacks are more a quarterback stat, but when you factor in the fact that Darnold was hurried on 63 attempts last year – fifth-most in the league – it becomes clearer that the offensive line needs improvement.
As further evidence of this fact, look at what the Jets did in the offseason. They added a number of offensive linemen in free agency, such as George Fant, Connor McGovern, and Greg Van Roten. They then drafted Mekhi Becton in the first round, and added guard Cameron Clark in the fourth round. Expect some new faces up front for the Jets’ offensive line in 2020.
Furthermore, the players Darnold and company were targeting downfield were not exactly the cream of the crop. Last year the Jets’ leading receiver (in terms of receptions) was Jamison Crowder, who makes for a fine WR2 but might not be the player you want your passing game running through. Robby Anderson caught 52 passes for the Jets a season ago, and is now in Carolina. Demaryius Thomas was third in receptions among wide receivers, and he is currently a free agent. Players the Jets were counting on, such as wide receiver Quincy Enunwa and tight end Christopher Herndon IV, struggled to see the field due to injuries, and Enunwa’s neck injury threatens his career.
Despite losing Anderson, the Jets also managed to remake their receiver room during the course of free agency and the draft. They added Breshad Perriman during free agency, a player who showed flashes of what made him a coveted prospect during the 2015 draft process down the stretch as perhaps Jameis Winston’s favorite target. Then the Jets were lucky enough to see Baylor’s Denzel Mims fall to them in the second round. If they can get Herndon back and healthy, they could roll out an 11 personnel package with Perriman at the Z receiver, Crowder in the slot, and Mims and their X receiver, with Herndon at the tight end spot and Le’Veon Bell as the RB. That…that could work.
Something else that might work for the Jets is a move away from the historically horizontal offenses of Gase’s past and a trend towards a more vertical approach. This is something we have seen more of from the Jets over the past few years, and with an improved offensive line – and downfield threats such as Mims and Perriman in the fold – we could be in store of more verticality in 2020 from New York. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, last year Darnold averaged 8.6 Intended Air Yards per attempt, which tied him for 15th in the league with Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers, two passers known for their aggression in the downfield passing game. Perhaps Gase is, like other coaches before him, finally adjusting his offense to fit his players, and not forcing his players into his system.
If the Jets are going to take a step forward offensively in 2020, they will need improved execution in the passing game. The additions they have made this offseason, coupled with more of a vertical approach, might unlock that potential. If, however, Darnold continues to struggle, it might be time for a deeper conversation. This will be his third year in the league, and his second under Adam Gase. Bill Walsh once said that it takes a quarterback three years to figure things out, and the clock is ticking on Darnold.