The Green Bay Packers have earned a second shot at the San Francisco 49ers.
Six weeks after losing 37-8 at Levi’s Stadium, the Packers will go back to Santa Clara for a rematch with the 49ers – this time with a trip to Super Bowl LIV on the line.
Here’s where the Packers must improve to beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday:
Third down: The Packers were 1-for-15 on third down in the first meeting. With Aaron Rodgers in the game, the Packers were 0-for-13. Obviously, the offense must be considerably better at converting opportunities and staying on the field. The good news: the Packers converted a season-high nine third downs against the Seahawks. Rodgers picked Seattle apart on third down, with seven completions moving the sticks and a quarterback sneak good for another conversion. If Rodgers stays hot and the Packers keep finding the right concepts to use in high-leverage situations, the offense could improve significantly on third down on Sunday.
Pass protection: The 49ers sacked Rodgers five times and hit him 10 times in the first meeting. Three of the five sacks came on third or fourth down, and the first sack – from linebacker Fred Warner – caused a fumble and set up the 49ers’ first touchdown. Protecting Rodgers better will be crucial. Don’t forget, however: right tackle Bryan Bulaga exited the game early, and Alex Light was overmatched as the backup. Bulaga should be back on Sunday, and now veteran Jared Veldheer is the top backup. Also, David Bakhtiari is once again playing at an All-Pro level. The bigger question marks might be inside. Corey Linsley and guards Elgton Jenkins and Billy Turner need to play a clean game. It will be a big challenge. Led by Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, the 49ers have the best front in football.
Start faster: The Packers dug themselves an early hole when Rodgers lost a fumble on the fifth play from scrimmage, setting up Tevin Coleman’s 2-yard touchdown run a play later. The quick turnover and touchdown is exactly the kind of nightmare start the Packers can’t afford in the rematch. The visitors will have to match the intensity early Sunday. A quick start could help erase some of the bad juju from the first meeting and provide an immediate confidence boost for the road underdogs.
Cover middle of the field: The 49ers offense gashed Mike Pettine’s defense for big plays in the middle of the field in November. All-Pro tight end George Kittle (61-yard touchdown) and electric rookie receiver Deebo Samuel (42-yard catch-and-run) both produced explosive plays between the hashes. Expect Kyle Shanahan to scheme up more plays to stress the Packers coverage in the middle of the field. The emergence of slot corner Chandon Sullivan and dime linebacker Ibraheim Campbell could give the Packers a better shot at defending the middle. Blake Martinez and the safeties will be crucial in the passing game.
More efficiency from 17: Davante Adams was targeted 12 times but managed only 43 receiving yards in the first meeting. The Packers couldn’t find ways of getting him the ball down the field. Most of his yardage came on quick, short passes. Adams is now healed from a toe injury and coming off one of the best games by a receiver in Packers playoff history. Can LaFleur and Rodgers find plays and concepts capable of getting Adams free for impactful catches? It’s hard to see the Packers scoring enough points without another big night from No. 17.
Taking the ball away: The Packers didn’t get a takeaway in the first meeting. It was one of just four regular-season games in which Pettine’s defense failed to produce a turnover. Otherwise, the Packers were 12-0 when getting at least one takeaway this season (and they’d be 13-0 if officials would have awarded a fumble recovery early in Sunday’s win over the Seahawks). Springing the upset in San Francisco might require several takeaways. It’s possible. Jimmy Garoppolo is good for at least one or two turnover-worthy throws a game. If the Packers can keep him under pressure and affect his timing from the pocket, interceptions could come in bunches. The Vikings had several opportunities for picks last Saturday.
Find secondary targets: Allen Lazard quietly had a nice night in San Francisco six weeks ago. The problem? Rodgers kept missing him. Overall, Rodgers completed only five passes for 23 yards to wide receivers not named Adams. If the 49ers key on Adams again, others need to step up and make plays in the passing game. That includes Lazard, Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham. Lazard left Sunday’s win early with an ankle injury, but Allison and Graham produced four huge catches on third down. The Packers may also need to figure out other ways to get Aaron Jones involved as a receiver.
Account for LB Fred Warner: The 49ers linebacker destroyed the Packers offense in the first meeting. He finished with 11 tackles, one sack and a forced fumble, and his speed and playmaking ability affected both the run game and passing game of the Packers. LaFleur and the offensive staff must find ways of better neutralizing No. 54 or he’ll have a chance to wreck another game. Warner will be joined on Sunday by athletic linebacker Kwon Alexander, who wasn’t available in the first meeting.
Find big plays for 33: The 49ers keyed on stopping Jones, who finished with 38 rushing yards on 13 carries and zero catches. It’s certainly possible the 49ers will plan to do the same Sunday, especially after shutting down Dalvin Cook in the Divisional Round. Winning big games often requires Herculean efforts from star players, and Jones is undeniably one of the Packers’ stars. Just one or two explosive plays from No. 33 could make all the difference.