The New York Knicks are in the midst of a six-game win streak and one of the reasons is the re-emergence of combo guard Immanuel Quickley.
Quickley looked comfortable and confident running the second unit for the Knicks. He scored 23 points (7-13 FG, 4-7 3P, 5-6 FT) while also adding 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal. It was a massive statement against Boston, who have the best defense in the NBA in 2022-23.
Perhaps more important: The Knicks secured a win over the Celtics and the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Malcolm Brogdon (-225) and made a case for why Quickley (+4000) is a smart bet as an underdog.
In fact, after the performance, the odds shifted for Quickley to win 6MOY from +25000 to a much more reasonable futures bet. That suggests an increased implied probability from 0.40 percent to 2.44 percent — so he is now considered more than six times as likely.
*gestures wildly, violently, exasperatedly towards immanuel quickley's sixth man of the year odds*
— Dan Favale (@danfavale) February 28, 2023
While the league typically hands this hardware to the player who scores the most points off the bench, it’s also important to recognize that the respective teams have also played well when the recipients are on the court.
Since the league began tracking plus-minus in 1996-97, in fact, none of the winners of the NBA’s 6MOY winners have finished in the red.
Among the favorites this year, however, not everyone is meeting those qualifications. The Pacers are losing the minutes with Bennedict Mathurin by 70 points, the Warriors are losing during minutes with Jordan Poole by 58 points, the Clippers are losing the minutes with Norman Powell by 11 points, and the Hawks are losing the minutes with Bogdan Bogdanovic by 3 points.
Powell (-3.4), Mathurin (-2.5), Poole (-2.0), Russell Westbrook (-1.5), and Bogdanovic (-0.1), would each have the lowest net rating on record for any Sixth Man of the Year. Dallas’ Christian Wood (0.5), Sacramento’s Malik Monk (1.1), and Milwaukee’s Bobby Portis (1.4) would also edge out Lou Williams’ campaign (1.6) for the Clippers.
Brogdon is the frontrunner to win the hardware, but even he would have the fifth-worst net rating (3.3) for a 6MOY since 1996-97. The Celtics play far better when is off compared to when he is on.
Meanwhile, per PBPStats, New York is currently outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per 100 possessions when Quickley is on the court. But they have been outscored by 1.9 points per 100 possessions when he is not playing.
Compare that to Quickley’s collegiate teammate and fellow 6MOY candidate, Tyrese Maxey. Philadelphia has outscored opponents by 4.3 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor but they have also outscored opponents by 3.4 points per 100 during the minutes when he is not.
Philadelphia is a good team with or without Maxey. New York, however, relies tremendously on Quickley for its success. In fact, only one player in the entire league has a better raw plus-minus than Quickley (210) during games in which the player did not start.
The increased trust in Quickley has almost directly translated to winning. Per Tommy Beer:
“Over the first 23 games of this season, Immanuel Quickley averaged less than 23 minutes a night. NY was three games below .500 (10-13) in those 23 contests. In the 40 games since, Quickley has averaged 31 minutes a night. NY is 12 games above .500 (26-14) in those 40 games.”
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One of the main factors for the success is that their defensive unit essentially falls apart during the minutes when Quickley is not on the court. They allow an additional 11.5 points per 100 when he is off relative to when he is on, per Cleaning The Glass, which is the best in the NBA (minimum: 300 minutes).
For comparison, we can look at those who have the most playing time (minimum: 1,100 minutes) this season. The only players even close to Quickley are Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Jaren Jackson Jr. (8.7) and 2017 DPOY winner Draymond Green (8.4).
He is considered the “defensive director” and vocal leader for the Knicks.
Immanuel Quickley has become the Knicks’ defensive director.
Story on a guard who knows what’s about to happen before it even occurs (with a special discount for nonsubscribers inside the link): https://t.co/K5LKgu4hg3 pic.twitter.com/BsVU0RR7iW
— Fred Katz (@FredKatz) February 1, 2023
Some of the catch-all advanced stats also offer a strong candidacy for the New York guard, too.
To put this in perspective, we looked at every player in the league who has started fewer than 44.0 percent of games for their team (which is the most ever by a 6MOY) while logging at least 19.0 minutes per game (the least by a 6MOY) so far this year.
(Note that Maxey has started 55.0 percent of games for the 76ers and could rejoin the starting lineup soon.)
Quickley has added 4.3 wins for the Knicks, according to the metric Stable Player Impact (SPI). Among the other players who fit those qualifications, Quickley leads the pack. He leads these players in Dunksandthrees.com’s Estimated Wins (4.6), too.
He ranks second-best within this group for Bball-Index.com’s LEBRON Wins Above Replacement, second-best in RAPTOR WAR, and third-best in ESPN’s WAR.
If all of the advanced metrics are saying the same thing — that Quickley is positively impacting his team in quantifiable ways — it is more than worth it to start paying attention.
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