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The No. 21 Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and the No. 1 Oregon Ducks (7-0, 4-0) meet Saturday at Autzen Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Illinois vs. Oregon odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Illinois pulled off a 21-7 upset over the then-No. 22 Michigan Wolverines last Saturday, winning outright as a 5-point home underdog with the Under (44.5) hitting. The Fighting Illini saw their lead trimmed to 13-7 before halftime but held the Wolverines scoreless in the 2nd half. Despite being outgained 322-267, Illinois capitalized on turnovers, winning that battle 3-0. QB Luke Altmyer threw for 80 yards and a touchdown and added a 1-yard TD run in the 3rd quarter, while RBs Aidan Laughery (54 rushing yards, 9 carries) and Josh McCray (50 yards, 17 carries) led the ground attack.
Oregon remained unbeaten with a dominant 35-0 shutout at the Purdue Boilermakers Friday, Oct. 18, covering as a 30-point favorite with the Under (61) cashing. With Georgia knocking off then-No. 1 Texas last Saturday, the Ducks were voted No. 1 in the latest US LBM Coaches Poll — Texas fell to 6th, while Georgia climbed 2 spots to No. 2. Oregon outgained Purdue 421-301 yards, won the turnover battle 2-1 and converted 5 of 9 third downs. Heisman hopeful QB Dillon Gabriel threw for 290 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, while RB Jordan James rushed for 50 yards and 2 TDs.
– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Illinois vs. Oregon odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 4:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Illinois +900 (bet $900 to win $100) | Oregon -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Illinois +21.5 (-115) | Oregon -21.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Illinois vs. Oregon picks and predictions
Prediction
Oregon 24, Illinois 13
Moneyline
PASS.
Despite several injuries, Oregon (-1600) should win this game at home in Eugene, but I like Illinois (+900) to play hard and keep this game tight. I’ll PASS on a moneyline play and take my wager to the spread.
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Against the spread
BET ILLINOIS +21.5 (-115).
Taking Illinois presents strong value, especially considering the Oregon’s key injury concerns. Oregon might be without DE Jordan Burch, a vital part of their defense with 19 tackles and 5 sacks, and TE Terrance Ferguson, who has been a reliable target with 321 yards and 20 receptions.
Meanwhile, Illinois has shown it can hang tough against top competition, with its victory over Michigan and a 21-7 loss at current No. 3 Penn State. The Illini defense has been solid, forcing turnovers and creating pressure, while QB Altmyer has demonstrated a knack for protecting the ball. If the Illini can keep things close early, they have a good chance to stay within this large spread, making the +21.5 line a favorable bet.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 54.5 (-110).
Taking the Under looks like a smart bet, considering both teams’ defensive strengths and Illinois’ struggles on offense. While the Illini pulled off a surprising win against Michigan, they managed just 21 points, relying heavily on the defense to get the job done. Altmyer has been inconsistent, often struggling to stretch the field, and the Illini haven’t scored more than 24 points in last 3 of their last 4 games.
Oregon’s defense has been a strength, allowing only 16.6 points per game to rank 13th nationally. They excel at putting pressure on quarterbacks and forcing turnovers, which can keep Illinois’ scoring in check. Meanwhile, the Illini’s defense is no slouch — it creates disruption and can force key turnovers.
If Illinois can hold Oregon to field goals and prevent red-zone success, the game is likely to stay UNDER 54.5 (-110).
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