Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway prediction, pick: How UFC 308 headliner could end inside the distance

Will Ilia Topuria be first to knock out Max Holloway, or will the UFC 308 title fight end the other way around?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 308 main event between featherweight champion [autotag]Ilia Topuria[/autotag] and former champ [autotag]Max Holloway[/autotag].

Ilia Topuria UFC 308 preview

Staple info:

  • Record: 15-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC
  • Height: 5’7″ Age: 27 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
  • Last fight: Knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski (Feb. 17, 2024)
  • Camp: Climent Club (Spain)
  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC featherweight champion
+ Regional MMA title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Grappling and wrestling base
+ 5 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and cage-cutting
+ Superb boxing technique
^ Jabs, bodywork, shoulder rolls
+ Solid wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Excellent transitional grappling
^ Dangerous from front-headlock position

Max Holloway UFC 308 preview

  • Record: 26-7 MMA, 22-7 UFC
  • Height: 5’11” Age: 32 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69″
  • Last fight: Knockou win over Justin Gaethje (April 13, 2024)
  • Camp: Gracie Technics/Legacy Muay Thai (Hawaii)
  • Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC featherweight champion
+ BMF belt holder
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 12 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Building pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Excellent shot selection
^ Variates well to the body
+ 84 percent takedown defense
+ Deceptively counters clinches
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Underrated ground game
^ Slick submissions in transition

Ilia Topruia vs. Max Holloway point of interest: The best boxers in MMA

Apr 13, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Max Holloway (blue gloves) fights Justin Gaethje (red gloves) during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The main event for UFC 308 features a featherweight title fight between two of the best boxers you will find in MMA today.

An aggressive fighter who came out of the gates as more of a bull than a matador, [autotag]Ilia Topuria[/autotag] is developing an elite striking game before our very eyes.

Typically looking to cut off the cage, Topuria will initially display a lot of the right ideas you’d like to see from forward-moving fighters. From small feints that accompany Topuria’s pressure to the tight distances he likes to keep on the feet, the Georgian fighter’s style ensures high temperatures in his fights.

Although Topuria isn’t the tallest or longest fighter in his division, he has a knack for punching with his opponents in order to meet them in the middle. The 27-year-old is also good about flowing into left hooks, particularly down low to the liver.

Against Josh Emmett, Topuria demonstrated the ability to focus his aggression for the better part of 25 minutes in what was a boxing masterclass opposite a devastating puncher.

Aside from solid footwork and a beautiful jab, Topuria quietly incorporated some slick shoulder rolls to protect his chin and take some power off of Emmett’s shots. This tactic and the spirit of Topuria’s movement, in general, also feed right into the Georgian’s patent pull counters (which come with a Conor McGregor-Esque swagger in tow).

Topuria also has some underrated calf kicks that will likely have some play in this fight, but making any sort of hay on [autotag]Max Holloway[/autotag] is usually easier said than done.

Displaying solid striking and footwork fundamentals since storming onto the UFC scene (as one of the promotion’s youngest signees, no less), Holloway, who was already improving from fight to fight, turned a big corner in his career after his encounter with Cub Swanson.

Since then, we have witnessed a technical evolution unfold from the Hawaiian, who embraces his creativity and range with a diverse arsenal of attacks. Whether Holloway is shifting his stance mid-combination or adjusting his timing on the fly, the former featherweight kingpin makes for a hard read on the feet.

When feeling in stride, the 32-year-old looks to pay off his previous bodywork by punctuating his presence with everything from spinning sidekicks to digging left hooks to the liver. Coupled with his ability to counter effectively from either stance, Holloway can hypothetically take a fight in many different directions.

That all said, it is the building nature of the champion’s game that makes him stand out from the rest of the UFC stable.

Embodying a fighter archetype that I like to refer to as “a builder,” Holloway will not only build on his output, but his understanding of the fight’s traffic will also increase as he intelligently takes tools from his opponent and incorporates them into his game.

Nevertheless, offensive volume – no matter how clever – comes with a price.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Jun 24, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Josh Emmett (red gloves) fights Ilia Topuria (blue gloves) in a featherweight bout during UFC Fight Night at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

Between the potential for chaos on the feet to Topuria’s on-paper advantages in the grappling department, no one should be shocked if this party touches the mat this weekend.

A dangerous submission grappler who grew up with jiu-jitsu, Topuria has proven to be a top-level black belt with his finishing prowess on the floor.
A demon from the front-headlock position, Topuria can seamlessly transition into his favored anaconda choke like it’s second nature. Topuria is also a solid wrestler and superb scrambler – an area where his athleticism particularly shines through in the way in which he floats positions.

Still, I’ll be curious to see how much Topuria respects the grappling of Holloway in this fight.

Holloway’s superb striking may hallmark a large part of his brand, but the Hawaiian has quietly made consistent improvements to his counter grappling, maintaining an impressive 84 percent takedown defense rate.

Even when having his takedown defense tested by some of the best wrestlers in the division, Holloway has been able to snuff out a large majority of the shots sent his way (even smoothly re-wrestling his way to ride positions of his own on occasion).

Not only does Holloway display the balance and defense to stuff takedowns, but he also shows an excellent awareness of how to conduct his hips and grips in close. Deceptively hand-fighting to counter clinches and grappling efforts, Holloway demonstrates a knack for striking off the breaks, something that could be worth watching for in this fight.

More importantly, whether Holloway is conducting himself from the clinch or inside the chaos of transition, he has always prioritized protecting his neck and head by either maintaining an upright posture in close or keeping his hands in the proper neighborhood to defend grasps.

Even back in his controversially scored loss to Dennis Bermudez, Holloway showed the defensive habits of defending chokes (that often weren’t coming his way) in transit, which tells me that this habit is deeply hardwired into his system. That said, Topuria will still be but one scramble or front choke away from potentially changing the complexion of this fight.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway odds

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champ, listing Topuria -250 and Holloway +190 via FanDuel.

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway prediction, pick

As someone who has been high on Topuria since prior to his UFC debut, I can understand the excitement and high projections that come in tow with the current champion. From his technical savvy that appeals to hardcore fight fans and analysts alike to the undeniable swagger that makes him likable to the Gen Pop, Topuria looks to be the total package thus far in his young career.

That said, for as impressive as Topuria has looked, it’s hard to say just how much he’s proven given the overall length and range of his sample size, particularly in comparison to someone like Holloway. And despite everything from age to arguable cage craft being against Holloway, I still think that there is a lot to like about the underdog side of this equation from a stylistic perspective.

First off, I believe that a majority of the avenues that outline this matchup are potent two-way streets (which is why this fight is so rich from an analytical standpoint). Whether we’re talking about jab or calf kick openings, similar-themed criticisms can be lobbied at both parties. As far as the footwork battle is concerned, I suspect that the dynamic could be much more complicated than many expect.

The basic thought is that Topuria’s high-temperature, cage-cutting approach will be able to reliably funnel Holloway into the sitting champion’s win conditions – with some even suggesting that we might see the first knockout loss in Holloway’s career.

Although such a scenario is sadly on the table in this game, I believe that Holloway’s lateral movement and circling sensibilities have some play in this fight. Holloway may not utilize the same footwork fundamentals as Jose Aldo or may not be as flashy as T.J. Dillashaw when it comes to his pivots or shifts, but the Hawaiian has consistently shown solid ring awareness throughout his career.

Even in this latter stage of Holloway’s striking evolution that sees him sitting down harder on his punches and kicks alike (something I was saying in breakdowns before picking him in his last fight), the 32-year-old still shows good reactions in the heat of the fire and is prompt about getting back on the clock in regards to circling back to the center and resetting.

That said, Holloway will undeniably be playing with fire if he outfights around the inner-black octagon lines against some like Topuria, who – akin to Robbie Lawler – comes to life whenever anyone enters his preferred kill zone.

Whether Holloway’s getting his kicks countered or is being heavily pressured, he can be pushed back to the fence to his detriment. Topuria knows this, so both he and his backers seem to believe that it’s basically hook, line and sinker this Saturday.

But as I pointed out before UFC 300, Holloway’s kicks and counters off the backfoot have been extra potent since his last loss to Alexander Volkanovski.

When going back to look at Holloway’s recent fights since said loss, you can see that – for whatever success his opponent had pushing him backward – the former champ was able to answer right back with even more impactful blows (continuing his career-long theme of looking better the more aggressive his opposition gets).

Whether Holloway is unleashing counter hooks (from either side) or is intercepting opponents with stupidly accurate spinning assaults, the Waianae native has proven to have many answers for pressure up his proverbial sleeve. Holloway has even gotten better at using everything from double-hand traps to crafty clinch frames and tactics to help further stymie the pressure coming his way.

And though Holloway has one of the best chins in the history of this sport, the 14-year pro continues to demonstrate stellar defensive adjustments on the fly (as seen below in the way in which he’s immediately able to slip and circle off the very same attacks that previously cleaned his clock just moments prior).

Whereas Topuria, even in an impressive victory over Josh Emmett, proved to be more defensively susceptible as the fight went deeper. More specifically, Topuria demonstrated specific openings that could be problematic against someone like Holloway and his shot selection.

As stated in my prior breakdowns of Topuria, left-sided strikes (landing on Topuria’s right side) are the champion’s common culprit by a clear margin. And aside from Holloway quietly hurting a lot of his foes with his lead hand, I believe that the Hawaiian also has the southpaw card up his sleeve if he wants to play it.

Although Holloway never stays in one stance the whole time, I can’t imagine there would be a fight where fighting southpaw makes more sense than this one.

Not only does the open stance dynamic take away the jabs and calf kick from Topuria (who you’ll be hard-pressed to find a lot of samples of meaningful jabs thrown, much less landed, by Topuria in open stance looks), but the Spaniard’s style doesn’t seem to vibe well when opposite of this stance given how he tends to revert to selling out from his power side.

Whereas Holloway, no matter the dynamic at hand, is a consistent jabber and bodywork from both stances.

Everything from Holloway’s uppercuts to his spinning side kicks will be live from his orthodox stance due to Topuria’s dipping propensities, but I genuinely believe that Holloway will find success with head kicks and crosses if he meaningfully commits some stretches to southpaw in this fight.

Add in Holloways ridiculous durability and the fact that he’s the more proven and effective fighter over five rounds, and I’ll happily take a flier on “Blessed” to survive the early scares in order to pull away down the stretch for a stoppage win in Round 4.

Prediction: Holloway inside the distance

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway start time, where to watch

As the main event, Topuria and Holloway are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 4:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 308.