Bill Belichick is famous for making his players uncomfortable, for getting every speck of leverage in contract negotiations and for treating every player like he’s replaceable. He builds pain unlike any other.
So perhaps it’s fitting that his pupil of 20 years is doing what Belichick does best: treat each contract negotiation like a cold war. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is applying the same ruthless tactics in negotiation with his coach. Brady has done what he can to generate leverage against the coach, and has made no indication of where he will play in 2020. He won’t even say that he wants to be back in New England next season.
Much like Belichick does, Brady has evaded the media when asked questions about his future. Information is money. And Brady clearly doesn’t want to give up either. So he treats interviews like a game of dodgeball. He obfuscates, and even makes a comedic show of his opacity. His Super Bowl Hulu commercial was almost Belichickian in that he drew attention to the fact that he’s mum about an important topic. That’s what Belichick’s press conferences are like — football theater to distract from the pressing topic at hand. But this commercial went a step further. Brady said nothing (like Belichick tends to do) while drawing greater attention and tension to the situation. So did his handshake with Raiders owner Mark Davis. Perhaps it’s all according to Brady’s plan.
Brady hasn’t stopped there in taking after his boss. He may just test free agency. For a few years, Belichick has explained that he doesn’t fear free agency. He’s happy to let other teams set the market on one of his players, and he’ll decide if he wants to pay that price. Belichick did this with players who stayed, like safety Devin McCourty, linebacker Dont’a Hightower and special teams captain Matthew Slater. The coach also did this with players who left, like tackle Nate Solder and defensive end Trey Flowers. In the case of Solder, the Patriots seemed to stay relevant until the Giants won out. In the case of Flowers, the market quickly exceeded what the Patriots were capable of and willing to pay.
Ultimately, Brady may be able to drive up his price by flirting in free agency with the Oakland Raiders, the Los Angeles Charger, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and whatever other team throws tens of millions of dollars in Brady’s direction. But Belichick isn’t likely to match the top offer on the market. That top offer is likely to be huge. A six-time Super Bowl champion has never hit free agency. Maybe’s 42. Maybe he just had one of his worst statistical seasons. But Brady will be an extremely hot commodity, because, well, he’s the G.O.A.T.
To complicate the matter more, Brady’s foray into the Patriots will make contract negotiations with New England harder for contractual and cap-space reasons. His contract voids on March 18, which is essentially like releasing him. At that point, his signing bonus, which was previously prorated over two years, consolidates into one big $13 million cap hit in 2020. If Brady can agree to an extension, his deal never voids and so those signing bonus dollars stay split over two years. In plain English, Brady can save the Patriots $6.7 million in 2020 cap space by signing before March 18. That $6.7 million could go toward Brady’s contract — or toward improving his supporting cast.
But if Brady is intent upon doing what’s best for him, he will probably go into free agency, even if it costs New England $6.7 million in 2020 — a sum which will make them less competitive in the market for Brady. If Brady hits free agency, he’ll give Belichick a final dose of his own medicine, using the market to drive up his price.
But then what? Then Brady has to decide: Can he say no to money because he wants to retire with the Patriots and keep playing for Belichick? Or can Brady try something new, take a huge risk and hope his next destination will put him in a better situation than the Patriots can? There are teams with more cap space and better draft picks. But they don’t have Belichick. His presence alone seems like enough to win 11 games.
Brady’s posturing has been impressive and likely calculated, but he has to decide if he can be truly ruthless, treat the NFL like a business and leave the organization that made him into this priceless NFL commodity, even at his most vulnerable moment in a decade. Belichick has always had the guys to make the hard decision — he’s always built pain. And then he’ll deliver the pain, when necessary. Will Brady do the same?