The Cowboys aren’t very good. At 3-3 they fit the definition of mediocre and based on the film they’ve put out into the universe this season, mediocre is being generous. Of the teams Dallas has beaten in 2024, the opponent record is at a combined 7-11 heading into Week 7. The good teams have had their way with the Cowboys.
It’s clear Dallas has major issues on both sides of the ball. The offensive line has been abysmal most of the season. Some of their struggles can be blamed on the two rookies, but it’s largely been a group failure with the unit struggling as a whole. If the trend continues, the ramifications will have a long tail, as they like to say.
The issues on the offensive line have contributed to a significant drop in offensive production in 2024. After being a perennial top five outfit in previous seasons, Dallas ranks just 25th in offensive EPA this season.
It doesn’t help the Cowboys have only one legitimate weapon on offense in CeeDee Lamb and are severely lacking playmakers at receiver, tight end and running back. Teams that can control Lamb can control the Cowboys, which explains Dallas’ inability to hang with the NFL’s better defenses.
Speaking of defense, the Cowboys are a mess on defense in 2024 and it’s not known if that will ever get better. Mike Zimmer’s system is proving difficult for players to execute and the revolving door of personnel brought on by injuries isn’t doing Zimmer any favors.
Dallas is 27th in defensive EPA this season and that was with facing Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Dashaun Watson, three of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. It just so happens those three matchups are the only games the Cowboys have won.
Which brings us to the point, can Dallas only beat bad teams and if so, what does that mean for the draft?
The Cowboys’ next five opponents all have winning records.
They don’t play anyone with a losing record until Thanksgiving Day. In that second stretch they play three consecutive teams with losing records. If they follow the chalk, they will stand 6-8 at that point. Closing out the 2024 season against three winning teams, it would put Dallas at 6-11 to end the year, well outside the playoff picture.
In all fairness, a winning record today may not be winning record tomorrow. It’s possible Dallas pulls off a win against a team with a winning record (like the Steelers) and loses to a team with a losing record (like the Saints).
But if the Cowboys are really just good enough to beat bad teams like they appear to be, they’re on track for a 6-11 season. Based on 2023’s draft order and the records of those teams, that would have them drafting sixth or seventh in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The season is young, and anything can happen, but the Cowboys don’t appear to be a team that can hang with contenders and given their difficult schedule, they may be destined for a top 10 pick in the draft next spring.
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