Maybe MJF is executing a long-running work on professional wrestling fandom when he talks about his impending free agency. If he is, props to him. If not, it stands to be one of the more fascinating stories that will play out in the industry over the next year or two.
There’s no question that MJF is a bona fide star. Just watching one or two of his best promos, like the one he cut in his hometown of Long Island during Dynamite this week, can convince nearly anyone of that. He’s got a way with words, and more importantly, the innate sense of how to connect with crowds, that all of pro wrestling’s biggest icons have had.
His in-ring work is also above average, and at just 26, his best years are almost certainly still ahead of him. Free agents that check all the boxes the way he does simply don’t come around that often … and he knows it.
That’s why it’s been so intriguing to hear him work his knowledge of his own self-worth into his character. While he’s been talking about what he might do when his current contract is up (Jan. 1, 2024, in case you somehow haven’t heard him mention it yet) for some time — and not so subtly hinting that he’d consider heading to WWE — the most blatant example of it was during his interview on The Ariel Helwani Show a month ago.
When you say flat out that you could “bite oft Tony Khan’s fingers” and it wouldn’t matter, suffice it to say you’re feeling pretty strong about your negotiating position.
Yet the ultimate decision date for this particular negotiation is still a long way away. The most recent reports by Fightful Select say the two sides aren’t any closer to an extension now than they were a month ago, and that MJF is leaning toward not re-signing. But a year and a half is approximately forever in the wrestling business, where things can and do change on a dime.
It’s an even longer horizon for AEW, which is only three years old as a company and has a lot to work out in its own right before the end of 2023. Foremost among those items is a new television deal, as its current agreement with TNT and TBS expires next year.
(That situation has become much more complicated over the past few months, with a merger between WarnerMedia and Discovery creating Warner Bros. Discovery, and the GM of TNT and TBS during the time AEW signed its TV deal exiting the company. It could easily be the topic of its own column.)
Maybe the next TV deal AEW signs is even more lucrative than the current one, and contains provisions for streaming and the like. If that’s the case, it’s possible that Khan simply throws a ton of money at MJF, he stays in the fold, and this was all just a lot of fun speculation masterfully kept on the minds of fans and journalists by MJF himself.
But let’s consider the other, much juicier scenario: MJF leaves and signs with WWE.
It wouldn’t be the first time a big name wrestler had gone in that direction. Cody Rhodes left AEW for WWE earlier this year, making a splashy debut as the mystery opponent for Seth Rollins at WrestleMania 38. It was a move that surprised many since Rhodes was one of the driving forces behind the creation of AEW in the first place, and had an executive role in the company to boot. His choice to return to WWE had to sting all throughout AEW.
Losing MJF would hurt even more. Unlike Rhodes, MJF has no prior work history in WWE, and would be heading there by choice to see if he could continue his success with an even bigger platform. Having an EVP switch back to a previous employer is one thing. Watching one of the supposed foundations of your company, a man on whom the future was going to be built, is something else entirely.
That said, there’s something of a silver lining in this worst case scenario for AEW: If MJF decides to take his talents elsewhere, it would be the biggest confirmation to date that AEW is legitimate competition to WWE.
Consider that MJF has made no bones about the fact that he’s seeking a big raise in his next contract, and to acquire him, WWE would have to outbid AEW. It wouldn’t be doing that to put him on NXT (especially not in its current, talent development-heavy incarnation), but to present him as A Big Deal, right away. Unlike Rhodes, who was a known quantity to fans who only watch WWE programming, this would be a homegrown AEW star being positioned as someone important — and not just any wrestler, but one of the four pillars, someone just about to enter his prime.
Not that WWE would mention AEW by name, of course. Some things never change, and avoiding even the appearance of having competitors has worked pretty well for the company over the years. Even left unsaid, however, this would be a powerful message: This performer became a star somewhere else, and we brought him here because he think he’ll be a big attraction here too. That wouldn’t be the case if the “somewhere else” wasn’t relevant in its own right.
Keeping MJF should be, and probably is, the focus for Khan and AEW management. Seeing him walk would be rough, but would also be the most significant validation so far that AEW has arrived in a way that no other No. 2 U.S. wrestling promotion has in the 21st century.
It’s going to be an entertaining 18 months until we find out which way it ends up.