If Jimmy G. needs to throw, here’s how the 49ers can still win Super Bowl 54

It would not be Kyle Shanahan’s ideal game plan to have Super Bowl LIV go through Jimmy Garoppolo. Here’s how it could work anyway.

Make play-action the focus of the passing game.

Per Pro Football Focus’ metrics, Garoppolo has thrown 10 touchdowns to five interceptions, completing 67.9% of his passes for 10.4 yards per attempt and a quarterback rating of 109.4 when using play-action. When he’s not used play-action, Garoppolo has thrown 18 touchdowns to nine interceptions, completing 69.3% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt, and a quarterback rating of 96.8.

One reason for Garoppolo’s increased efficiency when using play-action is that he struggles at times to discern coverage from the middle of the field to the seams — this was the case in both the near-Kendricks interception…

…and the actual Kendricks interception.

Play-action adds to the probability of displacing linebackers and safeties in coverage, giving Garoppolo the more favorable reads he requires — especially in Shanahan’s advanced route concepts, which create openings as few other passing games do.

This 75-yard touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders in San Francisco’s 48-46 Week 14 win over the Saints shows how defenders can react to the prospect of the run when an offense is passing — especially when the rushing offense is as successful and diverse as San Francisco’s is. Uncertainty everywhere, and Garoppolo needs defensive uncertainty to succeed consistently.

Linebackers Craig Robertson and Demario Davis are kept near the formation by both play-action and pre-snap motion (which we’ll get to in a minute), cornerbacks Eli Apple and P.J. Williams adhere to running back Tevin Coleman on his release route, safeties Von Bell and Marcus take turns falling down as Sanders goes through his deep route, and that’s how a touchdown is created.

There are several things wrong with New Orleans’ defense on this play; Shanahan created enough of the problems with the design. Play-action will be a must against Kansas City’s defense, which allowed 11 touchdowns, an opponent quarterback rating of 111.5, and had just one interception against play action in the 2019 season, per Sports Info Solutions.

Use motion to displace and give Garoppolo easier reads.

Also per PFF, the 49ers used pre-snap motion on 79% of their plays this season, first in the league. This plays to type for Shanahan, who has raised his motion percentage in each of the last five seasons as either an offensive coordinator with the Falcons, or as the 49ers’ head coach.

Shanahan doesn’t just call pre-snap motion to move a player from one side of the formation to the other, though he does that a lot. He’ll also move receivers from outside the formation to the backfield, and move running backs from the backfield to outside the formation. When he was calling plays for the Falcons, it was always fun to watch fullback Patrick DiMarco motion from the backfield all the way out wide, and see how linebackers reacted. Not a great situation for the defense.

But for Garoppolo, the main advantage to pre-snap motion is that it allows him to discern whether the defense is setting up to play man or zone coverage. If a defender moves with the motion player all the way across, it’s likely man coverage. If you see defenders checking to each other with less movement, you’re probably going to get zone coverage. To be more specific, motion can disrupt zone, man, and match coverage responsibilities by putting different defenders on different skill position players. Defenders should know and respond to the fact that, for one example, they have the “2” receiver instead of the “3” receiver in trips if the “3” receiver moves to the other side, but it doesn’t always work that way.

This 10-yard touchdown pass to receiver Kendrick Bourne against the Seahawks in Week 10 was set up by motion and coverage reveal. When Sanders moves from left to right pre-snap, and cornerback Tre Flowers moves with Sanders, the 49ers know they’re getting man coverage. So, when Sanders takes Flowers deep, Bourne gets an inside release on defensive back Jamar Taylor, making it easy for Garoppolo to hit his target in stride.

Take the deep shot early.