The Duke football team hasn’t beaten the North Carolina Tar Heels in five years, but the Blue Devils have an ideal chance to shift the power balance in Wallace Wade Stadium on Saturday.
Legendary head coach Mack Brown took over the UNC program in 2019, and Duke has lost to him in each game since.
The recent trend gets even more frustrating upon closer examination with three of those losses coming by three points or fewer. The Blue Devils took North Carolina all the way to double overtime in Chapel Hill last fall before a failed two-point conversion foiled the upset bid.
On Saturday, however, Duke looked much steadier than its in-state counterpoint. The Blue Devils walloped Middle Tennessee 45-17 thanks to three first-half fumbles while UNC gave up 53 first-half points in a stunning upset at the hands of James Madison.
Brown apparently even asked his players if he should step away from the team after the 70-50 loss, a comment he clarified did not mean he was on the brink of retirement but seems to indicate some instability in the locker room.
Even besides the general form, North Carolina looks like it’s missing something critical from the last five seasons: an NFL talent at quarterback.
Sam Howell started for the Tar Heels from 2019-21, throwing for more than 10,000 yards and 92 touchdowns in his three years at the helm. He threw for at least 220 yards with multiple touchdowns in all three games against the Blue Devils, culminating in a 321-yard, three-touchdown game in 2021.
Drake Maye followed in his footsteps and somehow looked even better. The 6-foot-4 slinger threw for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns in his first season as a starter, and he finished with 364 total yards and three touchdowns in last year’s overtime thriller.
Howell ended up as a fifth-round NFL draft pick, playing 18 games for the Washington Commanders between 2022-23, while Maye went to the New England Patriots with the third overall pick earlier this year. Between their five starts against Duke, the duo completed 61.4% of their passes at a staggering 9.06 yards per attempt, averaging more than 300 passing yards per game with 15 total touchdowns against just four interceptions.
UNC quarterback Jacolby Criswell threw for 475 yards and three touchdowns against the Dukes on Saturday, but he also tossed two interceptions. He seems to have won the job after sophomore Conner Harrell started against Charlotte in Week 2, but the Tar Heels split time between them against NC Central in Week 3. That’s three different approaches to the quarterback position in three weeks.
Combine that with a Duke pass defense allowing 4.2 yards per attempt with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed through four games, and the Blue Devils should have the blueprint to make UNC one-dimensional. Granted, that’s still a great dimension with running back Omarion Hampton, but it’s better than the exhausting effort of defending Maye and Howell for the last half-decade.
The passing advantage extends to the other side of the ball as well. UNC has given up at least 300 yards through the air in two of its first four games. James Madison’s 388 yards and five touchdowns were an aberration, but the Charlotte 49ers threw for 309 yards and two scores against this secondary.
Through four weeks, Duke ranks second in the ACC in pass attempts per game with 36.0. First-year starter [autotag]Maalik Murphy[/autotag] has thrown 11 touchdowns in his first 16 quarters with the team, the third-most in the conference so far this season, and senior wideout [autotag]Jordan Moore[/autotag] is within the top five in catches (24) and yards (340) despite a quiet game against MTSU.
Between the general vibes around this UNC program after last week and a vulnerable pass defense playing into Duke’s strengths, it’s no wonder the Blue Devils opened as 3-point favorites on Monday. However, those advantages bring expectations, and there’s no reason for head coach Manny Diaz to not get off to a 5-0 start.
Duke kicks off against the Tar Heels at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday, and Blue Devils fans can watch their team try to make a statement on ESPN2.