How would reduced 2021 salary cap impact the Miami Dolphins’ rebuild?

How would reduced 2021 salary cap impact the Miami Dolphins’ rebuild?

The Miami Dolphins’ rebuild received a big boost this offseason when the Dolphins poured in heavy amounts of free agent spending into the roster — allowing the Dolphins to add some critical names to the depth chart in an effort to assemble a team capable of contending in 2020. The Dolphins offered an annual average salary in excess of $10M per season to DE Shaq Lawson, OG Ereck Flowers, LB Kyle Van Noy and CB Byron Jones in free agency, with Jones receiving a record setting contract for cornerback salary.

This team means business.

But how will the potential impact of lost revenue from the NFL in 2020 impact the Dolphins’ rebuild? If the league decides to play this season without fans in the stands, the NFL could see their revenue sharing pool dwindle and one key side effect of such a measure would be a reduced salary cap in 2021. Will the 2020 spending come back to bite the Dolphins in the event that the league takes such measures?

Not necessarily. The Dolphins are scheduled to hold 55 players under contract for the 2021 season at this point in time. Among the key players currently scheduled to hit free agency next offseason, the Dolphins must be wary of LB Raekwon McMillan, RB Matt Breida and DL Davon Godchaux. Those players aside, Miami will certainly miss QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is also in a contract year but has been set up to phase out of the starting job and presumably out of Miami all together as he nears 40 years of age.

With the 55 players under contract and just a few key free agents to worry about, the Dolphins are estimated to enter next offseason with over $57.5M in cap space if the salary cap is not impacted. If the NFL is forced to make concessions there in order to compensate for lost revenue in 2020, the Dolphins should ultimately be a team that doesn’t seen much issue in compensating. The team may have to shift their guarantees distribution to potentially resign McMillan, Godchaux and potentially Breida but none of the three figures to be a premiere free agent and will command crippling cash commitments.

And with just under $9M in total roster bonus, option & workout bonus commitments for 2021, the Dolphins aren’t going to see a ton of extra cash guarantees as hurdles to navigate manipulating the cap. Compare that to some of the other teams across the league, such as Philadelphia ($13.6M in roster bonuses, $17.6M in option bonuses, $1.6M in workout bonuses and an additional $20.5M in deferred prior guarantees via restructured contracts) and Pittsburgh ($16.5M in roster bonuses and another $29.5M in deferred prior guarantees via restructured contracts) and it is an easy sell that the Dolphins will have the needed flexibility to take reduced cap in stride.

It may result in a stringent 2021 offseason — but if that’s the case the entire market will be withered and Miami should still have the opportunity to stay in the game for any key free agents they may be interested in, knowing full well that the year one commitments are going to be secondary to the long-term cash. That will be a slippery slope for Miami to navigate, but the early returns with Chris Grier in charge of the cap seem to suggest he deserves trust to find the right balance.