A true clash of titans is taking place Tuesday evening in Phoenix when the Suns host the Golden State Warriors.
The 17-3 Suns have won an incredible 16 straight games since starting the season 1-2. Meanwhile, the Warriors hold a league-best 18-2 record with a seven game winning streak of their own. Something has to give between these two West powers in what could potentially be a conference finals preview.
Playing at home, and coming off two days of rest, the Suns are 3.5-point favorites on Tipico Sportsbook. They’re also entering the game with one of the hottest players in the NBA in Devin Booker. Over the last seven days, only LeBron James has averaged more points than Booker’s 32.3. In that three-game span for Booker, he’s shooting 56 percent both from the field and on three-pointers, while taking six threes per game.
Golden State, on the other hand, has MVP frontrunner Stephen Curry, who has been hot since…well, all season. Curry’s 28.6-point average is tied with Kevin Durant for the league-lead in scoring entering Tuesday, and he’s making about six threes a game. Collectively, the Warriors make a league-best 15.2 threes a game on 36.8 percent shooting, good for fifth best.
They also defend, holding a league-best 99.4 defensive rating. Combined with their second-ranked offensive rating, they lead the league in net rating. Simply put, this Golden State team is reminiscent of their championship teams of the recent past, in that they score well and defend.
But these Warriors are young and largely untested as a group. There aren’t many leftovers from the championship teams aside from Curry, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. Their second through fourth leading scorers, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole and Damion Lee have a combined five playoff games between them, all belonging to Wiggins. This group also turns the ball over too much, averaging 16.1 as a team, third-most in the NBA.
I think these dynamics give the Suns a slight advantage to win at home. It’s not as if they’re statistically light years behind Golden State. The Suns are just two spots behind the Warriors in both net rating and three-point percentage, and they turn the ball over a lot less. That matters when you consider they’re slightly ahead of Golden State in possessions per 48 minutes.
Phoenix is also more recently battle-tested as a whole, coming off of last season’s NBA Finals berth. That may not matter much in most regular season games, but in a nationally televised game between teams with the NBA’s best records, sure to be anticipated by players and fans on both sides, the atmosphere in Phoenix could be electric. I think this game stays close and maybe comes down to a final shot, so I’ll take Golden State to cover the spread, but I’m going with Phoenix on the moneyline. And I like the over on 221.5 total points.
Picks: Suns win (-150), Warriors cover +3.5 (-115), Over 221.5 (-112)