Gonzaga is a 9.5-point favorite over Arkansas for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup, the same spread the Zags were favored by against Memphis in the Round of 32.
That game saw Gonzaga eek out a four-point win while failing to cover for the sixth time in its last eight games, according to Covers. One of the other two games resulted in a push, leaving Gonzaga with a single cover since Feb. 16.
[tipico]
Arkansas, on the other hand, finished regular season play much better ATS but also has yet to cover through two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The Razorbacks’ failure to do so stems from an offense that struggles to put teams away. Against both Vermont and New Mexico State, they held halftime leads that would have covered but were then outscored in the second half.
Gonzaga’s games have gone the complete opposite direction, as the Bulldogs are a combined -8 in the first half of games this tourney and +33 in the second half. However, their 10-point halftime deficit in the Second Round came against a Memphis team that scores better than Arkansas.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Arkansas
Spread: Gonzaga -9.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Gonzaga (-520), Arkansas (+370)
Total: 154.5 (-110)
(odds via Tipico as of 3/23/22 at 5 p.m.)
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The Razorbacks aren’t likely to put as much distance between themselves and Gonzaga. And while they defend well, they simply don’t have the size to shutdown the likes of Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme over the course of a full game. I fully expect Gonzaga to win this game and cover the spread with a second-half push.
I also think the game eclipses the 154.5-point total. These two teams both play an uptempo style of basketball, which should lead to a lot of points — even if they don’t come on the most efficient of shooting. Three of the four tourney games between these two teams have hit their overs.