It’s hard to say whose Sweet 16 win was more impressive, but both No. 2 Duke and No. 4 Arkansas come into Saturday’s Elite 8 game on a high note.
Behind phenomenal efforts from Paolo Banchero and Jeremy Roach, Duke overcame a rough first half against an elite Texas Tech defense to win what feels like a springboard game in their pursuit of a title in Mike Krzyzewski’s final season.
The Blue Devils are favored by 4.5 points over Arkansas, which slayed a giant to advance. The Razorbacks held No. 1 Gonzaga to 38% from the field and got freshman phenom Chet Holmgren to foul out with more than three minutes remaining. They didn’t trail once the entire second half.
Holmgren did present problems for Arkansas when he was in the game, however, along with Drew Timme. The two combined for 36 points and 21 rebounds. The Blue Devils have a few bigs who can cause similar issues in Banchero and Mark Williams, and a cast of wings and perimeter players who are simply better than Gonzaga’s. For that reason, I’m taking Duke to win and cover.
As good as Arkansas can be defensively, Duke may not see another challenge as tough as Texas Tech — a team that defended well and had a really efficient game on offense. And yet, Duke found a way to win with amazing solo efforts in crunch time. Thursday it was Banchero and Roach. Saturday it might be AJ Griffin or Wendell Moore Jr.
Arkansas doesn’t score as easily, beating Gonzaga despite going 40% from the field including 9-of-29 from leading scorer JD Notae. That won’t suffice in the Elite 8, and while I think their uptempo style of play presents a different challenge for Duke — and pushes the total over 146.5 points — it won’t be enough to overcome the wealth of talent and newfound confidence the Blue Devils have.