When the Los Angeles Rams traded quarterback Jared Goff, first-round draft picks in 2022 and 2023, and a 2022 third-round draft pick to the Detroit Lions for quarterback Matthew Stafford in March, it did two things. It continued the team’s practice of giving up high draft picks for premier talent, and it moved the franchise’s quarterback position from good to great, at least in the abstract. Throughout his career in Detroit, the first-overall pick in the 2009 draft (Stafford) had shown the ability to do more things consistently at a much higher level than the first-overall pick in the 2016 draft (Goff) had ever displayed. The idea was that Stafford would become the perfect interpreter of head coach and offensive shot-caller Sean McVay’s system, and that this costly transaction would pay immediate dividends.
Basically, and not for the first time, the Rams of McVay and general manager Les Snead were saying, Super Bowl or Bust.
“The way he’s able to see the field, you see [Aaron] Rodgers, [Patrick] Mahomes — [who] have done an outstanding job of being able to move and manipulate coverage and change their arm slots, and Matthew has done a lot of those same things,” McVay said of Stafford around the time the trade was consummated. “I think he’s got great wide-field vision, sees the field. He’s able to speed it up if he has issues. You’re watching a guy that if you watch the film, the game makes sense to him, and I really respect the lens that he sees it through.”
How has it gone so far? Right now, the 12-4 Rams are the NFC’s second seed, and they can win their first NFC West title since 2018 this weekend (which was also the last time the Rams went to the Super Bowl). They’ve won five straight games, and they look for all the world to be one of those teams you just don’t want to face right now.
Beneath the water, however, there be icebergs. The run game has taken a nice upward turn with Sony Michel and Cam Akers, and the defense has been top-five all season. But the Rams have fallen from second to 16tn in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency metrics in the second half of the season, and from third to 20th in the passing game. Not how you want to enter the tournament.
Stafford has been the primary issue of late.
In the first half of the 2021 season — Weeks 1-9 — Stafford was the NFL’s most efficient quarterback. He completed 219 of 321 passes (68.2%) for 2,771 yards (8.6 YPA) for 23 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a league-best passer rating of 111.0. But from Week 10 through the Ravens game last Sunday, Stafford’s numbers have fallen off several cliffs — he’s completed 164 of 248 passes (66.1%) for 1,877 yards (7.6 YPA), 15 touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 93.8, which ranks ninth.
Stafford’s last three games are of specific concern, though the Rams won each of those contests against the Seahawks, Vikings, and Ravens. From Weeks 15-17, he completed 68 of 101 passes (68.3%) for 750 yards (7.4 YPA), five touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.9. Those six interceptions tie him with Mike Glennon of the Giants for the league lead, and anytime you’re in a statistical barrel with Mike Glennon, that ain’t good.
OMG AND THEN HIS NEXT PASS ATTEMPT IS THE TRIPLE COVERED INTERCEPTION
WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM MATTHEW
— Seth Galina (@pff_seth) January 5, 2022
We’ll get into the detail of what happened there in a minute. The Rams won the game, 20-19, but the concerns over Stafford’s recent performance have not evaporated at all.
“I think there are some things that we need to get better at,” McVay said of Stafford’s overall performance after the Ravens game. “And he would be the first person to tell you that. I thought he was at his best when his best was required. We talk about competitive greatness all the time, and there are a few things about that. Are we giving him clarity to what we’re really looking for in certain instances? But, he’s just a mentally-tough guy. And that’s just what you want from your quarterback. Those will be things we’ll learn from. [I] don’t know if you’ve talked to him yet, but when you talk to him, he’ll be the first one to take ownership. I love this guy so much. I feel I can certainly help him in putting him in some better spots, but when we had to have it, and the defense made a stop, he made big throw after big throw in clutch situations. That’s what the great players do.”
McVay’s question about giving Stafford the clarity to do what the Rams want to do in the passing game is a legitimate one. No matter how fabulous a quarterback is, and no matter how amazing a system is, it takes time for two great tastes to taste great together. We saw this with Tom Brady and Bruce Arians in Brady’s first year in Tampa, and we’re seeing it now with Stafford’s time in L.A.