The Green Bay Packers were prime regression candidates in 2020. Matt LaFleur’s team possessed many of the hallmark qualities of teams about to regress in the win-loss column. Last year, they won a bunch of close games, stayed healthy and got a bunch of timely turnovers, creating a 13-3 team with the worst point differential in over 30 years.
The pull of regression in 2020 was great. Three games remain, but the Packers have resisted well. Exceedingly well. This team is better, and the major win-loss regression hasn’t happened.
Why? How? Even with predictable regression on defense happening, the inconsistent offense and inconsistent passing game from 2019 has morphed into an elite offense and the most efficient passing game in football in 2020.
Back in August, we outlined some of the ways the Packers could resist regression. It all started on offense, which had the most room for improvement, and the biggest potential for improvement, especially with Aaron Rodgers entering his second season in Matt LaFleur’s offense.
What we wrote: “On offense, the passing game must get more explosive and more consistent, and the Packers must get better on third down. There’s a chance all three could happen in Year 2 of LaFleur’s offense, although the Packers will need more efficiency and accuracy from Aaron Rodgers and big jumps from the young players at the wide receiver and tight end positions.”
Check, check, and check.
The Packers are more explosive, more consistent, and excellent on third down. Rodgers is more efficient and more accurate. And the Packers are getting productive seasons from receivers Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and tight end Robert Tonyan.
The defense isn’t getting as much pressure or creating as many turnovers in 2020, but it just hasn’t mattered. The Packers are 10-3 and in possession of the top seed in the NFC because the offense has played at such a ridiculously high level all season long, save for one long afternoon in Tampa Bay.
Rodgers is first in the NFL in touchdown passes (39) and passer rating (119.7). He’s completing a career-high 69.6 percent of his passes. The Packers are second in the NFL on third down (49.7 percent) and first in the red zone (77.1 percent). They are first in points per game (31.5) and points per drive (2.97).
Regression hasn’t happened because the Packers offense turned it away in a big way.
The Packers’ point differential is 87, up 24 points over last year with three games to go. They’ve played in just five one-score games, and they’ve actually regressed here, losing two (vs. Minnesota, at Indianapolis). For most of the season, the Packers have won big (six wins of 14 or more) or been leading big in the second half of wins.
While the team hasn’t faced any major injuries, they’ve been without key players for most of the season. Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, David Bakhtiari, Corey Linsley, Kenny Clark, Christian Kirksey and Kevin King have all missed time.
The Packers have pulled off a neat trick. They were fortunate to win 13 games in 2019, sure. That wasn’t a dominant team. But they haven’t regressed in 2020. In fact, they’ve gotten better in most of the important ways a team can get better and haven’t suffered at all in the win-loss column, even if reaching 13 wins again was a tall task entering the season. Now, two weeks into December, no one is talking about the Packers as the worst 10-3 team of all-time. They’re talking about the dominance of the offense, the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and Rodgers’ MVP hopes.
The Packers could have easily regressed this season, possibly improving overall but losing a few more games. It would have been understandable, given all the factors involved with last year. But LaFleur’s team resisted. An elite offense led by a Hall of Fame quarterback having an MVP season has created the ultimate regression-stopper.