The NFC East is up for grabs, but no team in the division seems capable of winning it. The Dallas Cowboys suffered an awful 31-24 loss on Thursday Night Football to the Chicago Bears, and even made Mitch Trubisky look like a star. The loss should seal the end of the Jason Garrett era in Dallas – but thanks to the Eagles’ ineptitude, the Cowboys still have a very reasonable chance of hosting a playoff game in just a few weeks.
With the loss, the Cowboys dropped to 6-7, but they still currently lead the NFC East. The Eagles, at 5-7, can match Dallas’ record with a home win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. Coming off a loss to the Dolphins, that win is far from guaranteed.
How did the Thursday Night Football result change the fortunes of the Cowboys, Eagles and Bears? Let’s crunch the numbers from FTW’s Playoff Power Rankings.
Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
Entering Thursday’s game, the Cowboys had a 72.1% chance to make the playoffs. The current playoff projections would make the Cowboys the No. 4 seed in the NFC East, and Dallas would host No. 5 San Francisco in the Wild Card round.
After the loss, the Cowboys’ playoff chances dropped to 64.9%, according to the playoff models from 538 and ESPN, and that number will drop closer to 50 percent if the Eagles beat the Giants. The Eagles will host the Cowboys on December 22nd in Week 16 in a game that could decide the division. Dallas also has home games against the Rams and Redskins.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
The Eagles’ demoralizing loss in Miami left the team with no margin for error, but the Cowboys’ loss to Chicago put Philadelphia right back into the playoff mix – and the Eagles may even have the advantage, if they can fix their broken offense.
Prior to Thursday Night Football, the Eagles had just a 29.3% chance of making the playoffs. The Cowboys’ loss resulted in a seven percent boost, up to 35.2%. A win at home over Eli Manning and the Giants will mean that the Eagles can control their own destiny.
The Eagles have the more favorable remaining schedule, with a home game against the Giants, a road game in Washington, a home game against Dallas, and a Week 17 road game in New York against the Giants. Winning out means that the Eagles would likely host the No. 5 seed in the Wild Card round.
Chicago Bears (7-6)
Unfortunately for the Bears, a trip to the playoffs in 2019 is highly unlikely, despite their win over the Cowboys. Barring a complete collapse by both the Packers and Vikings, the NFC North crown is out of reach for the Bears, and with 10-win San Francisco and 8-win Minnesota taking up the two Wild Card slots currently, Chicago’s playoff odds are very long.
Prior to Thursday Night Football, the Bears had a 2.6% chance of making the playoffs. The win resulted in a very slight increase, up to 3.85%.
The biggest issue for the Bears is their remaining schedule, which is brutal. Chicago will travel to Green Bay in Week 15, host the Chiefs in Week 16, and finish the season in Minnesota. Winning out means the Bears could potentially overtake Minnesota in the Wild Card race on the last week of the season, but even that may not be enough, as the 7-5 Rams could potentially finish with an 11-5 record, edging out Chicago.
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