The Miami Dolphins have been a team that hasn’t been able to make the most of the NFL Draft in recent memory. The skeptics of the Dolphins’ current plan will point to Miami’s barren roster as a sign that general manager Chris Grier isn’t qualified to run the Dolphins’ rebuild and that allowing him to make selections is a risky proposition.
That’s nonsense. And here’s why. Because Grier, who has served as Miami’s general manager (although he technically worked under Mike Tannenbaum until January 2019) has actually done a nice job of drafting talent during his tenure. Yes, Grier was the general manager for the unfortunate selection of defensive end Charles Harris in the 1st-round of the 2017 NFL Draft. It was a misstep. A big one, too. Had Miami elected to go a different direction at the same position, Miami may be home to 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate T.J. Watt.
The Dolphins have added quality NFL players via the draft under Grier’s watch — his drafts have produced 2019 Pro Bowlers in OT Laremy Tunsil and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick. The fact that Miami is no longer in possession of both players isn’t really the point — because the Dolphins have seen an organizational shift to rebuild and upon hearing the trade price of Tunsil, Grier felt the additional picks were of greater value to the team than Tunsil. And of course Fitzpatrick didn’t buy in to Brian Flores’ defensive role. Could Miami have strong-armed the 2018 1st-round pick into staying? Sure. But a clean break for a pick that will probably fall around 20 in the 2020 NFL Draft order is a pretty darn good job from Grier when considering Miami’s trade market for Fitzpatrick was compromised by the reports of Fitzpatrick’s displeasure with his usage in Miami.
Grier’s drafting has also added cornerback Xavien Howard, linebackers Jerome Baker and Raekwon McMillan to the mix on defense. Tight end Mike Gesicki is looking much more like the value Miami envisioned when they drafted him in the 2nd-round as he nears the end of his second season in Miami. WR/KR Jakeem Grant and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux were late-round steals for Miami back in 2016 and 2017 respectively, as well.
But the real problem for the Dolphins during Grier’s tenure hasn’t been his picks. It’s been the lack of volume at the top of the NFL Draft. Chris Grier has made just 9 selections in the top-75 in the NFL Draft order over the course of four NFL Drafts.
That’s a problem. Because, as logic would indicate, the more ammunition one has at the top of the draft order, the more likely the probabilities are going to swing to your favor and bear more fruit. Consider some of the other teams in the NFL and how much ammunition their decision makers have had in the NFL over the course of the past four drafts.
The Indianapolis Colts have constructed a monstrous turnaround over the course of the last few seasons. That effort was negated by the abrupt retirement of QB Andrew Luck just ahead of the 2019 season, but general manager Chris Ballard has found opportunities to restock his roster in short order. How? The Colts have manufactured 8 NFL Draft selections in the top-75 picks over the last two NFL Drafts — one less than the Dolphins have had in twice the drafts.
The Cleveland Browns? Under the direction of Sashi Brown, the team pooled draft picks to no end. During the time that Miami has logged 9 picks in the top-75 (since 2016), the Browns have made 14 selections and traded several other picks away for established talent. Among those picks? Promising NFL talents in Myles Garrett, David Njoku, Jabrill Peppers, Larry Ogunjobi, Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Denzel Ward, 2019 rookie Greedy Williams plus the pick traded for WR Odell Beckham Jr. There are misses littered throughout, but that is the nature of the NFL Draft. Volume helps to account for the volatility of the draft. Cleveland has disappointed this year, but because of the coaching — not the talent.
The Denver Broncos are underwhelming at 5-9 this season but the team’s issues have stemmed around bad quarterback play over the past several seasons. Over the last two seasons, Denver has made 7 picks in the top-75 — two less than Miami has made in four years. And those picks have provided Denver with exciting young talents like TE Noah Fant, OL Dalton Risner, QB Drew Lock (who has started the last few games for Denver), DE Bradley Chubb and WR Courtland Sutton.
Miami? Their last two seasons of top-75 picks have yielded DT Christian Wilkins (don’t let anyone tell you he’s had a bad season), Minkah Fitzpatrick, TE Mike Gesicki and LB Jerome Baker.
The picks have been fine, there’s just not been enough of them. That won’t be a problem in 2020. Grier and the Dolphins are currently positioned to pick 6 times in the top-75 six times this upcoming draft — equal to the number of times Miami has done that in the last three years combined.
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