Pro Football Focus recently did 10,000 simulations of the 2021 NFL season and recorded the results of each — and the Tennessee Titans actually fared pretty well.
Here’s how PFF ran the simulations:
Using the PFF Elo rating system, PFF grades and available market data, we can simulate the 2021 season 10,000 times to accurately assign distributions for win totals, divisional title odds and the percentage each team makes the playoffs. We can also look at how often each team makes it to — and wins — Super Bowl 56.
The results show that the Titans averaged 9.4 wins per season simulation, but still made the playoffs 60.4 percent of the time. For reference, BetMGM has Tennessee’s projected win total for 2021 at set at nine.
Tennessee nabbed the division title 45.8 percent of the time, while having a 7.2 percent success rate for making the Super Bowl, and a 3.4 percent success rate in actually winning the big game.
Of all 32 teams, Tennessee’s playoff percentage was the eighth-highest, the division title rate was the sixth-highest, and their percentages for making and winning the Super Bowl were tied for the sixth-best. All of those marks were tops among AFC South teams.
As you’d expect, the Houston Texans were at or near the bottom of the list in every category, while the Indianapolis Colts routinely ranked in the top half of the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars landed somewhere in between those teams.