How Tampa Bay and Green Bay compare in advanced stats

Here is how the Bucs and the Packers stack up in some deeper NFL stats:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers may both be 6-7, but the way both got there has been a bit different.

The Bucs started off strong and then subsequently faltered, while the Packers started off poorly and then found a groove — both fortunes have recently reversed, though, as Tampa Bay has won its last two games while Green Bay saw its hot streak end in a rough loss against the New York Giants. If you look at advanced metrics, though, the Packers still have an upper hand over the Bucs.

The Packers are a top 10 team in EPA (expected points added) per play and EPA per pass, coming in at 9th in the former (0.03) and 6th in the latter (0.08). The Bucs, meanwhile, aren’t top 10 in any advanced stat on the offense, and are in fact 27th in success rate (40%) and 25th in EPA per rush (-0.14). Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has gotten much better over the past four games, thought, and given how Green Bay defends the rush, it’ll need to keep that going on Sunday.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense is awful via advanced metrics, coming in at 29th in both EPA per pass allowed (0.05) and success rate allowed (45.1%). The Bucs’ run defense is one of the best in the league by these metrics, coming in at 7th (-0.15), and that’s a far cry from the Packers, who come in at 24th in run defense (-0.06). The Packers also falter in explosive plays, giving them up at the 28th-highest rate (10.5%), so the Bucs will look to use a continually strong run game against the Packers to possibly create som big chunk gains over the course of the context.

Check out some more advanced stats between the two teams below: