There seem to be two primary camps these days when it comes to the value of running backs — there are those who will tell you that you can still ride a bellcow back all the way to a championship, and there are those who will insist that running backs are entirely fungible, based on positional value and modern offensive design.
As is the case with most “this-or-that” arguments, the answer lies somewhere in the middle, and tends to be more complicated.
For the Tennessee Titans, there is absolutely no question that running back Derrick Henry has been their most important player this season. The offense revolves around the 2019 regular-season leader in carries (303), rushing yards (1,540), and rushing touchdowns (16). In postseason wins over the Patriots and Ravens, Henry ran 64 times for 377 yards and a touchdown; by contrast, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw just 29 passes total in those postseason games, completing 15 for 160 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. It appears to be the modern conceit of the Titans to bulldoze their way to the Super Bowl in ways teams did one and two generations ago — with tight zone defense, a smart but thinly-allotted passing game, and the running back at the center of it all. Henry is that man, and the Titans wouldn’t about to face the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game without him.
This, of course, has led to the old correlation/causation issue regarding running backs and wins. Yes, the Titans are 13-0 when Henry rushes for 100 yards or more in a game, but what does that really mean? Often, as analysts like Doug Drinen and Aaron Schatz have pointed out for years, this happens primarily because teams with a lead are looking to burn clock and extend possessions, and running the ball late tends to be the best way to do that. So, the old “run to win” adage doesn’t always hold water. Generally, it’s no more efficient than the “QB WINZ” idea.
But when you have a back like Henry, who seems to be successful against any kind of defensive circumstance, and his team is as successful as it’s been this season, perhaps it’s time to pull his case out of the files and look at it individually. Chase Stuart of Football Perspective recently did so, and the results were very interesting.
Stuart’s research indicated that in three games (Week 6 in 2017 against the Colts, Week 13 in 2017 against the Texans, and Week 4 in 2019 against the Falcons), Henry’s 100-yard performance had little effect on the game’s final result. These were either blowouts when Henry hit the century mark, or his advancement to or past that milestone wasn’t specifically meaningful.
In three other games, all in 2019 (Week 12 against the Jaguars, Week 14 against the Raiders, and Week 17 against the Texans), it could be argued that Henry going over 100 was slightly meaningful. More often in these instances, it was Tannehill who put the team on his shoulders just as adeptly.
And in three other games (the divisional round win over the Ravens, Week 14 in 2018 against the Jaguars, and Week 1 in 2018 against the Giants), Henry’s efforts to get over 100 yards absolutely turned things around for the Titans.
So, that’s three cases where it didn’t mean much, three where it meant a little bit, and three where it meant a lot. Again, maybe the “run to win” thing is a little more nuanced than we might like to think.
Stuart also points out that Henry crossed the 100-yard mark when the Titans were trailing, which plays against type. Generally, teams would air it out when trailing, especially in crucial situations, but the Titans aren’t your average offensive team. It is their belief that, no matter the situation, they can stick with Henry and let him beat your offense into submission, especially if Tannehill can get shot plays off play-action early. Two of those games — Week 10 this season, and in the wild-card round of the 2017 season — the opponent was the Chiefs, and in each case, Henry’s efforts went a long way to establishing comeback wins for the Chiefs.
Is this an indicator that the Titans will use that same run-to-win strategy against Kansas City this time around? Unless the Chiefs get out to a monstrous lead, it’s entirely likely — and perhaps even if that happens. Most teams do not espouse Tennessee’s overall offensive philosophy these days, but it’s worked for Mike Vrabel’s crew, and it should be expected again.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”