How much better can Kirk Cousins be?

Kirk Cousins is a lightning rod. With a new OC, a question at RB, a rookie WR and lingering doubts about the QB, what does 2020 hold?

(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

Another bit of conventional wisdom floating around these days is the idea that play-action is a “cheat code.” We have seen this come to life recently with teams like the San Francisco 49ers in 2019. Last year Jimmy Garoppolo attempted 168 passes working out of play-action (tied for fifth-most in the league with Mahomes) and on those plays completed 105 of 155 passes for 1,667 yards (second-most in the league) and 18 touchdowns. Garoppolo also had an NFL passer rating of 109.3 when using play-action.

The 49ers are not the only NFC West team in recent history to ride play-action to a Super Bowl appearance. As outlined in the “Metrics that Matter” piece on the Los Angeles Rams, play-action was a big component of the Rams’ success in 2018, and part of their downfall in 2019.

You can count the Vikings in among the teams that relied heavily on play-action in 2019. Out of his 481 dropbacks a season ago, 31.9% of those were play-action attempts, the fifth-highest percentage in the league. Cousins comleted 102 of his 142 passing attempts using play-action (a 71.8% completion percentage) for 1,373 yards and 14 touchdowns. Those 14 touchdowns were the most in the league. Cousins had a Yards per Attempt of 9.7 when using play-action, third-most in the league, and his NFL passer rating of 129.2 on play-action throws was the tops in the league.

This is something that showed up early and often when watching him on film. Such as this play-action throw off of an outside zone run fake:

Or this three-level design, also working off of play-action, that includes a throwback element:

But play-action is one thing, his performance when pressured is something different. Seeing his numbers when pressured in 2019 had me looking for what I might have missed from him in 2018.

There were moments like this:

Or moments like this sequence of plays:

As the numbers, and then the film, illustrate, Cousins was actually better under pressure than the conventional wisdom. Where it tends to go wrong from him is in the bigger games, and the bigger moments. After defeating the New Orleans Saints on Wild Card Weekend, the Vikings made the trip to San Francisco to take on the 49ers.

What happened in that game? Well:

Cousins and the Vikings struggled on that afternoon when the quarterback was pressured, and Minnesota fell on the road.

So where does that leave, Cousins, the Vikings, and us entering 2020?

Well, given that so much of Minnesota’s offense is based off of play-action and the outside zone running game, there are three big questions at the outset: One, what will the team do regarding Dalvin Cook’s request to get paid, second, how will the team handle the loss of Stefon Diggs, and third, how will the offense handle the loss of Kevin Stefanski?

Addressing the coaching switch first, Stefanski was the architect of the offense the past few seasons, first as the interim offensive coordinator in 2018 and the full-time OC in 2019. His loss is going to be felt by the team, but Gary Kubiak brings decades of experience and the same offensive philosophy to bear in Minnesota.

With respect to the potential loss of Cook, the Vikings do have Alexander Mattison as a potential replacement, and while Cook is a great talent at the position, we have seen the roadmap for this situation before. Those same Los Angeles Rams, when Todd Gurley was mentioned as a potential MVP before people began to realize that it was the offensive system that put him in a position to be successful. This was an argument advanced emphatically by Sam Monson over at PFF:

Cook is the latest example of the mounting evidence that running backs simply don’t move the needle when it comes to success at the position, and they remain far more a product of their environment than they are of their own talent advantage over other players.

Dalvin Cook may be as talented as any back in the league, but between his injury history and the data showing the Vikings can insert another back without any significant drop-off, he is the latest example of a player who sadly doesn’t have any leverage in getting paid and needs to rely on the goodwill of the organization to meet him in the middle somewhere.

Finally, there is the Diggs piece. While the new Buffalo Bills receiver was one of football’s best downfield threats in 2019, the Vikings might have a perfect replacement in Jefferson, from LSU. One of the best traits the former National Champion brings to the table is a willingness to work over the middle, without fear.

Perfect for some of those outside zone play-action concepts.

Which brings us back to Cousins. Is he truly better than conventional wisdom has us believe? I, for one, am starting to see the light. But after two years of looking like the guy you “win with,” and not the guy you win “because of,” it might be time for him to make that leap into the latter category.

The numbers, and the film, tell us it is more than possible.

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