(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to take another look at Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins).
When I pitched the editors on the “Metrics that Matter” summer series, I had an ulterior motive.
Perhaps this is something I should not be admitting in open court…err…public.
But my line of thinking was this: Looking at each team in advance of the 2020 NFL season, whatever that might look like, would be a great way to do prep work on the year ahead. It would give me a look into their rosters, what they did well in 2019, where they could improve, and the like. Then, if I got asked a question out of the blue on a podcast or a radio hit, I’d at least have some little kernel of knowledge to pull out of the old noggin.
Along the way, some interesting things have come to light, such as Philadelphia’s struggles after the catch, to the Las Vegas Raiders’ struggles with defensive efficiency. But nothing prepared me for what I came across when it came time to discuss the Minnesota Vikings.
Before diving in, a step back. Some context, if you will. Prior to life as a sportswriter myself, I always appreciated when, as a consumer, a writer would shine light on their own potential bias when crafting a piece. I thought that was a wise step that gave the words that followed extra weight.
Last summer, at Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio, I generated a piece that caused a little bit of a stir in and around Minnesota. Titled “Kirk Cousins–Baker or Chef?” I analyzed the Vikings’ passer and came to a conclusion, using what I though to be an interesting analogy: Cousins was more a baker than a chef.
What did that mean? Well, he was someone that was at his best by the book, following the “recipe” step-by-step. Which is, after all, a requirement when trying to bake. Chefs, however, can be a bit more open philosophically. There are some quarterbacks who are chefs, like the Brett Favres and Patrick Mahomes of the world, who can create. Bakers, on the other hand, follow the steps on each play and often miss chances to be more creative.
I will admit to being rather proud of the piece at the time.
But then, 2019 happened, and as I sat down this past weekend to craft the Vikings’ piece in this series, I was confronted by my past, the film and the data. Forcing me to a realization.
Was I wrong? Was Cousins, dare we say, good?
The first bit of data that led me down this road was what Cousins did under pressure. His play under duress has been a bit of conventional wisdom regarding him as a passer, in that when facing a collapsing pocket he would be prone to mistakes.
Using my analogy, “bakers” would tend to struggle in those moments, while “chefs” would survive, if not thrive.
According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, when pressured last season (175 dropbacks) Cousins completed 75 of 143 passes for 882 yards, seven touchdowns and just one interception. That translated to an NFL passer rating of 84.9 (sixth-best in the league), and an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 73.0%, third-best in the league.
That is not what I expected.
That sent me back to the film.