Tom Brady is going to be better in 2021 than he was in 2020.
The fact that that is even a possibility this season is a story in and of itself, but there is actual evidence to back up that preposition. First off, Brady is healthy this season, as opposed to a season ago where he was dealing with an MCL injury that required surgery this offseason. Second, Brady knows the offense better than he did a year ago, as he admitted during the summer. Third, the bulk of the starters from last year’s Super Bowl team are back and as offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich stated last week, the quarterback and his receivers are on the same page heading into the year, unlike last season.
Beyond those facts, there are some schematic elements at play. Remember after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in November, and limped into their bye week? The football world spent the next two weeks hammering Bruce Arians and the coaching staff for a lack of pre-snap motion, and a lack of play-action.
As the kids say, Arians and Leftwich read the tweets.
The Buccaneers were a different offense after the break. As Doug Farrar pointed out earlier this summer:
Late in the regular season, though, everybody got on the same page. From Weeks 14-17. the Bucs upped their play-action rate to 25.5%, 21st in the league, and averaged 11.4 yards per play with it, and 8.9 without. They also used more motion — like, a LOT more motion. From Weeks 14-17, Tampa Bay went with motion on 56.6% of their plays, good for sixth in the league, and averaged 8.0 yards per play with it, and 6.1 without. Two primary reasons the Bucs stood at a stagnant 7-5 before their Week 13 bye, and came back to win their last four regular-season games.
Arians and Leftwich got even trickier in the postseason, as the Bucs used play-action on 28.5% of their plays, averaging 9.7 yards per play with it, and 6.1 without. Motion was more of a factor as well — 60.8% of their postseason plays featured motion, and though they had the same yards per play with and without it (5.7), it certainly seemed that everyone was finally reading the same playbook.
The difference was particularly obvious in the passing game: With play-action, the Bucs averaged 9.3 yards per pass, second in the NFL. Without it, they averaged 7.3 yards, which was 17th. With motion, Tampa Bay averaged 6.5 yards per pass (third in the league); without it, 4.9 (30th).
Yet, what does that look like, and how did the Buccaneers utilize these elements down the stretch? Let’s dive in.