While the big dominoes in the quarterback free agency market have yet to fall, the biggest so far made a move late on Monday night. Marcus Mariota, formerly of the Tennessee Titans and once the second overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft, agreed to terms with the Las Vegas Raiders.
The @Raiders have come to terms with Marcus Mariota
— Vincent Bonsignore (@VinnyBonsignore) March 17, 2020
Mariota never seemed to put it all together during his time with the Titans. A combination of bad injury luck and playing for five different offensive coordinators likely played a huge role in that, but Mariota also struggled to play at a consistent level for the Tennessee offense. He was sidelined this season due to ineffective play, and his maddening inconsistency was a frustrating thing to see for those who were believers in Mariota prior to the 2015 NFL Draft.
Like, the author of this piece.
You can just focus in on one trait from Mariota, anticipation, and see how quickly he went from being a solid NFL quarterback to someone who needed to be replaced. Take this throw from Week 4 of this season, against the Atlanta Falcons:
Man, the anticipation on this TD throw from Mariota is just a thing of beauty. pic.twitter.com/ZU2uHj8ihK
— Mark Schofield (@MarkSchofield) October 1, 2019
The anticipation on this throw is sublime. But think of everything Mariota needs to do to make this throw. Read the defense quickly, diagnose the coverage, and speed up his drop to get the ball out well before the break.
The next week against the Buffalo Bills? That anticipation is gone:
Mariota gets sacked here because he fails to pull the trigger on an anticipation throw. He wants to throw an in-cut to the slot receiver, but the robber coverage employed by the Bills on this play takes that route out of the equation. Mariota then transitions to the bunch formation look and locks onto an out pattern, but that decision comes much too late. If he speeds up his process and makes an anticipation throw, that pass can be completed. Instead, the quarterback is sacked.
Then against the Denver Broncos in Week 6, Mariota is sent to the bench. Plays like this probably doomed his fate in Mike Vrabel’s eyes:
Mariota here falls victim to one of the classic blunders at the quarterback position: Throwing late over the middle. Later in the game he throws his second interception – that play was more a function of his arm being hit while throwing – and Vrabel had seen enough.
Now, could this work for him in Las Vegas with Jon Gruden?
This off-season I have been making the case that the best fit for Mariota was with Matt Nagy and the Chicago Bears. To quote myself for a moment:
This is a concept I expounded upon over at the RSP this summer when I talked about the idea of quarterbacks being either “Bakers or Chefs.” The idea is basically the same. Some quarterbacks are bakers, and they are great at following the directions step by step. If, however, they try to get creative, they struggle. Or they are so set in checking off the boxes that they miss on opportunities to create. Kirk Cousins was the baker example that I used.
Nagy’s offense badly needs a baker, someone who will just work through the reads and check off the boxes and make the right decisions with the football. Trubisky’s difficulties in this area have hamstrung Nagy’s offense and held the team back to the point where they might miss out on a potential Super Bowl window. Nagy has tried different things with his quarterback, but he cannot get the offense to a point where it can be effective enough to complement a formidable defense.
Those same principles apply to what Mariota will be asked to do in Jon Gruden’s offense. Remember, Nagy is a branch off the Gruden/West Coast coaching tree. The elements of Nagy’s offense that made Mariota a schematic fit will certainly be in place when the former Oregon Duck moves to Sin City.
Thinking about this potential marriage brought my mind back to the lead-up to the 2015 NFL Draft. One of the downsides to Gruden returning to coaching was the fact that “Gruden’s QB Camp” would no longer air. That show was fantastic, with Gruden sitting down with top draft quarterbacks in front of the whiteboard to break down concepts, and then heading to the field with them to work on some different drills.
Watch this segment, with Mariota coaching Gruden up on Oregon’s “Bubble Y Over” concept, and tell me these two cannot work together in the NFL:
My favorite part of this segment is where Gruden gets on the board and walks Mariota through one of his designs: “Strong Right Slot Z Right Spider 2 Y Banana Z Over.” Of course, the “Spider 2 Y Banana” makes for great internet content, but seeing Gruden break this down for Mariota, and seeing the young QB take it all in, then run it on the field, was mesmerizing.
Gruden’s offense – much like Nagy’s – needs a quarterback who will work through the recipe and bring the coach’s vision to life. Derek Carr can do that as well, but one thinks that Gruden will give Mariota a chance to push Carr for the starting job come training camp. Mariota might finally find himself in a system that fits who he is as a passer, and with time he could finally find some stability in a scheme that could bring the best quarterback out of him.
Another aspect to consider is his new general manager. Back in 2015 Mike Mayock was the lead draft analyst with the NFL Network. His top quarterback in that class? It was not the player selected first, Jameis Winston. It was the guy who went second: Mariota.
Part of the reason Mayock liked him? Scheme fit. As he said at the time: “I appreciated what he’s been asked to do in their version of the spread offense. He reads combination routes. He takes tremendous care of the football and he wins games. He’s not as natural a thrower, but in the correct scheme, I think he can be productive.”
Given the terms, the schematic fit, and what the Raiders are building around the quarterback position, this marriage looks right on the surface.