How many games will the Indianapolis Colts win in the 2020 NFL season? We look at BetMGM‘s projected win total and the Over/Under odds, while looking back at the 2019 season and key offseason roster changes.
Indianapolis Colts’ 2019 season
- Record: 7-9
- Against the Spread (ATS): 7-7-2
- Over/Under: 9-7
QB Andrew Luck‘s abrupt retirement late in the preseason threw Indy’s offense – and, in turn, its season – into near disarray. The quarterback position was a mess, with Jacoby Brissett stepping in under center.
Indy ranked 25th in total yards per game (327.4), 16th in points scored per game (22.6), 16th in total yards allowed per game (346.8), and 18th in points allowed per game (23.3).
The middling performance was just enough, however, for the Colts to outdo their straight-up record at the sportsbooks.
Indianapolis Colts’ 2020 offseason changes
One big one is getting a new quarterback: Philip Rivers.
Excitement over a QB who’ll turn 39 years old in December may be misguided, but the efficient slinger reunites with some of his old San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers co-horts: head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni, who will extract the best version of Rivers out of his slightly older body with a quck-hitting aerial system.
The Colts also drafted a slew of players with the potential to contribute immediately on offense. Two, in particular, could push them over the top: RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jr. Taylor will at least form a committee with Marlon Mack and pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines but could be the undisputed leader later in the season as he gets a handle on the playbook.
The 6-foot-4 Pittman gives Rivers a big red-zone weapon to complement the deep prowess of T.Y. Hilton. Rivers will have TEs Jack Doyle and Trey Burton to own the middle of the field, and second-year wideout Parris Campbell could take a huge step forward.
The biggest factor working in the Colts’ favor is their offensive line, arguably among the three best in the NFL. This stout quintet, spearheaded by All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson and standout left tackle Anthony Castonzo, should protect the aging Rivers and allow the offense to develop on a consistent basis.
Don’t forget the underrated defense, which added game-breaking DT DeForest Buckner; still has ace pass-rusher Justin Houston; and is led by all-world LB Darius Leonard.
Indianapolis boasts an intriguing mix of new arrivals and great-to-elite continuity that will help their cause in this unusual 2020 NFL season.
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Indianapolis Colts’ 2020 schedule
Week 1: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 2: vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 3: vs. New York Jets
Week 4: at Chicago Bears
Week 5: at Cleveland Browns
Week 6: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: at Detroit Lions
Week 9: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 10: at Tennessee Titans
Week 11: vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 12: vs. Tennessee Titans
Week 13: at Houston Texans
Week 14: at Las Vegas Raiders
Week 15: vs. Houston Texans
Week 16: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 17: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts 2020 win total: Best bet
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds updated Friday, Aug. 7, at 8 a.m. ET.
Projected wins: 8.5 … OVER: -176 / UNDER: +145
- Likely wins: 8 – Jaguars x2, Jets, Bears, Bengals, Lions, Raiders, Texans (home)
- Likely losses: 3 – Ravens, Titans (away), Steelers
- Borderline: 5 – Vikings, Browns, Packers, Texans (away), Titans (home)
The 8.5 did nail the region of deliberation, but the market already sees the Colts as a possible contender, or at least a relative lock to reach a 14-team playoff. The Colts are one of the midrange betting teams most strongly built to surpass expectations and claw its way into elite status.
The fact they host the Vikings and Packers – two teams notoriously dependent on homefield advantage – tells me to tip the scales for at least one of those in Indy’s favor.
This knocks my expectation up to 10 wins, but with how deep this team is, I could see them eclipsing that.
So what’s the bet? The 8.5 O/U is a bit low by my estimate, but BetMGM has balanced it with a rather uninviting -176 line. I would, of course, BET OVER 8.5 (-176), but I’d look for pivots with more profit potential.
(New to sports betting? A winning $10 wager on Colts OVER 8.5 wins (-176) would yield a $5.68 profit.)
Exact Season Wins: Bands
- 0-4 wins: +3000
- 5-8 wins: +115
- 9-12 wins: -139
- 13-16 wins: +2200
I would BET 9-12 wins (-139) but wouldn’t mind stretching with a “sleeper budget” BET 13-16 wins (+2200). The Colts are constructed to be a sneaky contender for the AFC Championship.
Exact Wins: Best Bet
The Best Bet is EXACTLY 9 wins (+275), but I’ll also throw down some units for a greater return on EXACTLY 10 WINS (+325).
See the full breakdown of BetMGM’s Colts season-special bets.
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