As we all know by now, Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback to come off the board within the first two round of the NFL draft, as the Pittsburgh Steelers made him their first-round selection at 20 overall.
Why might he be an ideal fit for the current — and future — Steelers’ offense?
The case for Pickett as a first-round prospect, whether in this draft or in any, came down to his floor as a quarterback. Pickett is an accurate, experienced passer with good feel for the position and throwing receivers open to all levels of the field. In addition, Pickett was one of the quarterbacks in this class with a track record of attacking the middle of the field, with the arm talent to layer throws over second-level defenders and in front of third-level defenders.
The Pro Football Focus draft guide included this heat map of Pickett’s throws last season, and his ability to attack between the numbers stands out among the quarterbacks in this class:
Pickett’s willingness to target the middle of the field was a part of the reason evaluators looked at him as the most pro-ready prospect in the class. But there are other reasons for that conclusion, and those lead us to the potential similarities between the offense he ran in college, and what he might be running in the NFL. Under Mark Whipple in college, Pickett ran an offense that used a lot of pre-snap movement and motion, and also relied on him operating while under center.
Those are certainly some of the tenets of Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s offensive philosophy.
We can start with an example of Pickett and the Panthers using motion to create an advantage. On this touchdown against Duke, Pittsburgh begins the play in a 2×2 formation, with Pickett in the shotgun. But they motion a receiver across the formation, adjusting into a 3×1 alignment. Jordan Addison, the receiver who comes in motion, ends up as the middle receiver in the newly-created trips formation and runs a deep post. The tight end runs a dig, giving Pickett a Mills concept to read out.
The defense drops into Cover 4/Quarters, and when the safety over the tight end dives down on the dig route, Addison then gets a leverage advantage against the other safety, who is playing with outside leverage and no inside help. Pickett makes the right read and drops in the throw to Addison on the post for the touchdown:
Pickett’s ability to use his eyes to manipulate defenders also puts him in position to step into the Pittsburgh offense early in his career. On this play against UNC, watch as Pickett freezes the safety in the middle of the field, before flipping his eyes and feet to the right to target the running back on the wheel route along the boundary:
Now contrast that with a play from the Steelers last season. In the final two years of Ben Roethlisberger’s career, Pittsburgh created a lot of explosive plays in the downfield passing game with the quarterback targeting isolated vertical routes along the boundaries. It helps when you can hold or freeze safeties in the middle of the field when throwing these routes:
Pickett’s skills as a manipulator fit well with what the Steelers offense became over the past few seasons. But it is his ability to target the middle of the field that will unlock more for the Pittsburgh offense. That was a weak spot in Roethlisberger’s game the past few seasons, as this chart from Next Gen Stats illustrates:
Contrast that with throws like this from Pickett:
This is a very similar concept to the play against Duke, only this time Pickett needs to answer the problems posed by the defense with velocity, and not touch. With the defense in Cover 2 Man Under, Pickett has to navigate the man coverage defender and throw away from his leverage, but also put this on Addison before the safety can arrive.
Or take this play against Western Michigan, which ties in Pickett’s ability to work full-field reads with his willingness to attack the middle of the field:
The Panthers align in another 2×2 formation, with the football on the left hashmark. To that side of the field they run a Smash concept, with one receiver heading to the flat and another running the deeper route breaking towards the sideline. To the backside, Pittsburgh has one receiver on a out route while Melquise Stovall runs a post route.
With the football on the left hash, Pickett’s eyes work there first, as he wants to take the shorter throw. (Before you ask, this is not due to an arm strength issue, but rather to the idea that with the football on one hash, you often open towards the shorter side of the field to give yourself the easier throw. Why make life harder on yourself as a quarterback, the job is tough enough already?)
However, the defense matches those routes perfectly. The linebacker breaks on the flat route, taking that away. That frees up the corner and the safety to that side of the field to squeeze the corner route from Taysir Mack. Seeing these routes taken away due to the coverage, Pickett gets to the backside of this play, and to Stovall on the post. This is his third read, and he is attacking the middle of the field, and it is another example of why many looked at Pickett as a pro-ready quarterback in the draft.
Then there is another aspect to Pickett’s game that could unlock more portions of the Steelers’ playbook: His mobility. Roethlisberger was never the most athletic quarterback, his survival in the pocket was often due to strength than athleticism. But Pickett is a different passer, who can move around in the pocket and give Canada some boot-action designs to implement next season.
Take this play from Pickett against Virginia, focusing more on the concept rather than the execution:
This is the kind of boot-action design that Canada can dial up next season, thanks to Pickett’s athleticism and ability to throw on the move. Now, Addison does bail him out a bit at the catch point on this play, but this design — and the execution from Pickett — is a window into what we might see more of from the Steelers when Pickett takes over.
Canada can also call some designed sprint-out plays for Pickett, as Whipple did on this third down in Pittsburgh’s big win over Clemson last season:
This touchdown throw to Addison is a much better example of Pickett’s ability to throw on the move, as he delivers this corner route with pin-point accuracy.
This mobility also gives Canada the option to dial up some throwback designs, such as this play against Miami:
Pickett as the only first-round quarterback was one of the surprises of the first night of the 2022 NFL draft. But looking at what he does well as a passer, as well as what he might unlock for the Steelers’ offense, makes that selection a bit less of a surprise.