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The timing for a Jimmy Garoppolo reunion is lining up for the New England Patriots if they found they wanted to purse their old backup quarterback. It doesn’t make perfect sense, but the there is a scenario where the Patriots might be interested in trading for Garoppolo — or even signing him, if the 49ers were to cut him.
San Francisco benched Garoppolo on Sunday, but for now, let’s avoid viewing the move as a death knell for his tenure with the 49ers. The quarterback has been dealing with an ankle injury, and coach Kyle Shanahan explained away the decision as a medical precaution. So I’ll admit that exploring this concept is a tad premature, especially considering we’re in the same calendar year as Garoppolo’s Super Bowl appearance.
But… let’s dive down the rabbit hole anyway.
If Garoppolo’s standing with the the 49ers does deteriorate, they don’t have many financial hurdles to part ways with the quarterback when the 2021 league year begins. The Patriots, meanwhile, have no clear plans for quarterback next season. New England could extend quarterback Cam Newton, but neither party has made an indication that he’ll be around next year. The quarterback could take a strong season into free agency in 2021 when he’d likely get a hefty salary, one that’s more significant than what the always-thrifty Patriots are willing to offer. So if Newton leaves and the Patriots are left with Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham, then the Patriots might have interest in Garoppolo.
His contract includes hefty annual salaries, but his signing bonus is not significant. That certainly makes him less appealing on the trade market (because the team that trades him has to eat his signing bonus on their cap while the team that acquires him takes on the salary), but it also makes it easy for the 49ers to part ways with him. A trade made in the 2021 league year would leave behind just $1.4 million in dead money for San Francisco. Garoppolo’s salary would be $24.1 million in 2021. He’d also be due $1.4 in bonuses.
In this hypothetical deal, that salary might be a stopping point for New England. They were reluctant to give Newton, a former MVP who had Super Bowl experience, a deal that is worth up to $7.5 million. The Patriots must have been reluctant to give Tom Brady $25 million per year. Otherwise, he probably wouldn’t be playing for the Buccaneers. So that sum could deter the Patriots from Garoppolo, even though they’ve got a history. (The Patriots drafted him in the second-round in 2014 and started him for two games in 2016 before trading Garoppolo to the 49ers for a second-round pick.)
But that’s not the end of the thought experiment. If the 49ers really wanted to be done with Garoppolo, they could shop the QB around, and if they found no takers, they could cut him to spend his salary on other positions.
That’s when the Patriots would almost definitely be interested. If Garoppolo were on the open market, he might not demand a huge sum. He would also be fresh off a huge contract where he made an enormous amount of money, and so perhaps a return to New England, where he had success, might appeal enough for him to decide he could leave money on the table in Chicago, New York or another quarterback-needy team.
Essentially, Garoppolo could be available in 2021. And the Patriots may need a quarterback at the time. But the likelihood of the timing and the money coming together seems like a long shot.
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