Clemson missed out on the College Football Playoff this season for the first time since 2014, making one of the most intriguing questions for the Tigers’ program for 2022 an obvious one: Can Clemson get back there next season?
In what was considered a down year for the Tigers, they still finished with 10 wins and a No. 19 ranking in CFP’s final top 25. Clemson isn’t without its question marks heading into the spring, particularly along the offensive line as well as linebacker and even quarterback, but there’s still more than enough talent around to win games next fall.
And if the Tigers happen to win all of them – or something close to it – it will pose a more familiar question: Is Clemson’s schedule strong enough to get the Tigers in?
That always seems to be a talking point when the ACC is involved. And – at least to some extent – for good reason.
Since the CFP’s inception in 2014, only twice has the 14-team ACC had more than four teams finish the season in the CFP rankings. One of those years was 2020 when the league had a fifth ranked team thanks to Notre Dame, which played as a temporary member that season in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
That’s the most the ACC has ever had come season’s end in the CFP era. Clemson has been one of them each time, including six straight top-4 finishes before that streak came to an end this season.
This season’s ACC champ, Pittsburgh, didn’t come close to sniffing the top 4, coming in at No. 12 in the final CFP rankings. But the Panthers had two losses, more than Clemson had in any of those seasons heading into the playoff.
Clemson also won the ACC championship in all six of its playoff seasons, and the Tigers’ resume wasn’t exactly void of quality wins despite the league’s relative shortage of ranked teams. Clemson supplemented its league slate with some strong non-conference opponents, which helped the Tigers notch at least two ranked wins during all but one of its playoff seasons.
The most ranked wins the Tigers accumulated during one of those seasons going into the playoff was five in 2016 when they won their first of two national championships under Dabo Swinney. Clemson had just one ranked win in 2019 – a season in which the Tigers had their lowest top-4 finish (No. 3) – but still advanced to the CFP championship game.
So how might Clemson’s schedule stack up next season?
Clemson will have two teams on its conference slate that ended this season ranked. Wake Forest finished at No. 17 after winning the Atlantic Division while North Carolina State came in at No. 18. Both teams have their quarterbacks returning next season (Sam Hartman at Wake Forest and Devin O’Leary at N.C. State), so there’s a good chance each will remain a division contender next season.
Pitt rotating off the schedule isn’t the best news for Clemson, though the Panthers are losing quarterback Kenny Pickett, the ACC’s Player of the Year. So whether or not Pitt remains a top-25 team by the end of next season remains to be seen.
Replacing Pitt on the schedule is Miami, a cross-division opponent that could end next season in the rankings if it doesn’t start there. Tyler Van Dyke took over the controls of the Hurricanes’ offense midway through this season for an injured D’Eriq King and will return as one of the nation’s top quarterbacks after finishing this season 14th in the FBS in passing yards.
Van Dyke also had 25 touchdown passes with just six interceptions, and he’s far from the only significant contributor returning for Miami, which finished runner-up in the Coastal Division this season. Boston College, which is set to return one of the ACC’s top quarterback-receiver tandems in Phil Jurkovec and Zay Flowers, is another candidate to join the top 25 after finishing 6-6 this season without Jurkovec for most of it.
But even if next season turns out to be a weaker one for the league in terms of ranked teams, Clemson will get a chance to strengthen its resume in the non-conference against Notre Dame, which finished No. 5 in CFP rankings following its fifth consecutive double-digit win season.
Marcus Freeman is stepping in as the Irish’s head coach following Brian Kelly’s departure for LSU, and Notre Dame will need a new quarterback with graduate transfer Jack Coan out of eligibility. But the Irish, which will host Clemson next season to start a home-and-home series, are returning some NFL-caliber talent, including offensive tackle Josh Lugg and defensive ends Jayson Ademilola and Isaiah Foskey, and have enough other pieces that should keep them among college football’s top 25 teams.
Clemson’s other non-conference opponents — Louisiana Tech, South Carolina and FCS member Furman — combined to go 16-20 this season.
Of course, there could always be surprises. Some teams may not end up meeting expectations and vice-versa. But, for now, it’s trending toward there being enough meat on the bone for Clemson if the Tigers take care of their business next season.
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