Projecting the Future
One of the most intriguing part of the NFL Draft, from where I sit, is that it gives us a window into how all 32 organizations view themselves, both in terms of the near- and the long-term. For example, the New England Patriots, in a post-Tom Brady world, seem to be loading up on defense and tight ends, perhaps envisioning a return to the start of Brady’s career. At that time they relied not on Brady slinging it 55 times a game, but a ball-control offense where the QB threw it more like 25 times a game, and a stifling defense. So they could win those 17-14 “rockfights,” as my friend Dave Archibald termed them.
Then there are the Green Bay Packers. Who, a year removed from the NFC Championship Game, drafted the following on the first two days of the draft: A potential quarterback of the future, a between-the-tackles running back who joins a crowded RB room, and a tight end that Matt LaFleur wants to uses as his version of Kyle Juszczyk.
(In case you are wondering, Aaron Rodgers is indeed healthy and ready for the start of the 2020 season).
So teams tell us through their picks what they want to be in the future. New England, and it seems Green Bay, are betting on football being truly cyclical, and the halcyon days of “three yards and a cloud of dust” returning to the sport. Perhaps a risky bet, but you go in on a bet against Bill Belichick…
Now let’s return to the potential fit in Philadelphia for quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Prior to the draft, Touchdown Wire explored the best fits for the top 11 passers in the class. Here is a snippet of the report on Hurts and where he fit best, in our mind:
I first had this idea of Hurts in an Arians offense down in Mobile during the Senior Bowl. This was my first exposure to the Oklahoma/Alabama passer in person, and I was entranced by his ability to put touch and accuracy on the deep ball. This was something that is noticeable on film but really stood out. Play after play of Hurts dropping throws in the bucket got my mind working.
One of the areas of his game that does need refinement is what he does in scramble drill situations. Hurts is perhaps at his best when he is forced to create in the pocket, and he does a very good job at keeping his eyes downfield to scan for targets, and in a vertical-based offense that ability would be maximized.
Also, Hurts is better at reading defenses than he might get credit for. For example, his first throw against Iowa State this season saw him take a deep shot on a post route. The defense showed him a Cover 3 (middle of the field closed) look pre-snap but rotated to a Tampa 2 (middle of the field open) look as the play began. Hurts read it perfectly and took the deep shot to split the safeties as you would expect.
[Bruce] Arians will love throws like that.
In such a downfield passing system, the flaws that might make Hurts a difficult fit for a West Coast offense (elongated mechanics, a “see it, throw it” mentality) are minimized. Timing, which still important, is not a critical component. If Hurts is a half-second late, throws can still be completed. If he waits on a route (although hopefully not as long as that deep ball against South Dakota) he can still hit on throws. Further, when you factor in his ability to drop in bucket throws, his fit in a more vertical system makes sense.
Now.
Let’s take a two-fold look at how the Eagles view their future, through the dual lens of their 2020 draft picks, and the words from Howie Roseman and Doug Pederson.
In the first round the Eagles selected Jalen Reagor, a receiver viewed as a true threat after the catch (making him a good fit for a West Coast system of course) but also someone who was a vertical threat. Reagor is almost deadly on double-moves, provided his quarterback gets him the ball:
What else did they do this past weekend?
They added two more receivers in John Hightower from Boise State and Quez Watkins from Southern Mississippi. The Boise State WR was identified before the draft as one of our sleepers, and here is why. As we wrote “[t]he first box that he checks as a receiver, particularly a vertical threat, is speed. Hightower ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the Combine in Indianapolis, with a 1.49 10-yard split, a split that placed him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.”
It is speed you see on film:
Boise State WR John Hightower is a burner. pic.twitter.com/0t98i5Iw9A
— Rob Paul (@RobPaulNFL) July 13, 2019
Watkins? Well the Southern Mississippi WR is a pure burner. He was clocked at 4.35 in the 40-yard dash at the Combine, and was deadly in the vertical passing game. On throws of more than 20 yards, Watkins had 13 receptions for three touchdowns and a quarterback passer rating of 90.9, his best by distance.
Then consider what Roseman and Pederson have said over the past few days. When the team drafted Reagor, one of the things the Eagles’ general manager highlighted was his ability in the vertical game. “I think you see the separation on tape,” Roseman said. “You see the vertical separation as an outside receiver and those things are hard to find. When you look at this draft and guys who can just separate as an outside vertical receiver, there’s not a lot of those guys. They’re hard to find.” Pederson, after the Reagor pick was made, highlighted his speed, ability to stretch the field, and his vertical prowess.
Regarding the two later picks, Roseman illustrated after the draft that the organization really wanted both players:
I know when we drafted [Boise State WR and Eagles fifth-round draft pick John] Hightower we had a lot of conversation about Hightower versus [Southern Miss WR and Eagles sixth-round draft pick Quez] Watkins. And then when we moved back and picked up a bunch of picks, we had an opportunity to get Watkins, too. We sat there and we said, ‘Let’s get both of these guys. These are guys that we feel passionately about, and let’s add them to the team and let competition dictate what’s best for our football team.
Then there is a move the team made on the trade market the past weekend, when they acquired wide receiver Marquise Goodwin in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers. Of the veteran player, the Eagles’ general manager had this to say: “Marquise is one of the fastest men in the world. And I mean that when I say that. He’s one of the fastest men in the world. He is so fast.”
Putting the pieces together, you see the mindset behind these picks. As Roseman himself put it:
When we went back and looked at our team over the last year, we wanted to get more explosive, we wanted to get faster, and I told that to you guys after the season. It was important we stuck to that. I know a bunch of our scouts over the last couple days and certainly today when we talked about it, they kind of threw it back in our face. You know, they said, ‘Hey, if we are looking to get faster, this guy is still on the board.’
They are building a fast, vertical offense. A downfield offense. As Roseman told the media, “[w]e want to throw the ball down the field. We don’t want to be station-to-station football – that’s not what coach Pederson wants.”
That is where Hurts comes in.
Think back to a few years ago. A quarterback coming out of an Air Raid system in the Big 12 was drafted to a team running a West Coast offense. However, the coach of that offense realized that they needed to get more vertical in the passing game, to take advantage of the talent on the roster and the skill-set of their receivers and tight end options. So he drafted a quarterback built to run a newer version of his West Coast system, one you could now term West Coast on steroids.
This past February that coach and his new quarterback hoisted a Lombardi Trophy in Miami.
This is not to say that Hurts is the next Patrick Mahomes. Not at all. But the NFL is a copycat league. The Eagles, like every other team in the league, are looking at what works in the NFL. In today’s game, passing is king, and passing downfield is king. In terms of Expected Points Added per Play, provided the math is right, throws behind the line of scrimmage had an EPA/P of 0.006. Throws from 1-9 yards downfield had an EPA/P of .178. Throws in the 10-19 yard range had an EPA/P of .455, and throws more than 20 yards downfield had an EPA/P of .339. To score points – you know, the job of an offense – you gotta throw downfield more.
Perhaps cognizant of that fact – and the Eagles are a data-driven team – they are looking to get downfield in the passing game. That is where Hurts fits in. His strengths as a passer are in the downfield part of the field, and if they are getting more vertical as an offense, that is why he was the quarterback they targeted. Sure, the debates over whether Hurts is a threat to Wentz are fun, but the more fascinating part of this selection is the window into how the Eagles view their offense moving forward. They want to be vertical. Wentz himself has shown an ability to attack downfield. After the Reagor pick, Roseman himself said so. “Our QB likes to throw the ball down the field and make vertical throws.”
For years those of us who study quarterbacks and offenses have clamored for teams to build systems around what their passers do well, and not force quarterbacks into offenses they might not be tailored to run. If Wentz wants to be aggressive and throw vertically, then perhaps the Eagles are finally going to be an offense that is tailored to that approach. Perhaps they are going to build a system around him – with weapons around him – that are built for the vertical game.
In that kind of system, Hurts fits perfectly.
So in the end, they got the scheme fit right after all.