Using the Football Power Index (FPI), ESPN simulated the 2024 regular season. So, how did things end up for the Indianapolis Colts?
Now, before diving into the Colts’ final record, the caveat here is that the FPI is meant to simulate the season 20,000 different times to get a more accurate representation of what might occur. However, for this exercise done by Seth Walder, he selected just one of the 20,000 simulations–No. 515 to be exact–to dissect and examine.
For the Colts, simulation No. 515 wasn’t all that kind, with the team finishing 7-10 on the year. This was good for third in the AFC South, behind the 10-7 Houston Texans and the 10-7 Jacksonville Jaguars, both of whom made the playoffs.
Even for a computer simulation, there appears to be uncertainty around what the 2024 Colts can be–and understandably so. Like any team, they have their question marks, most notably in the secondary, where GM Chris Ballard is banking heavily on the internal development of several young players
Then, of course, there is Anthony Richardson, who has just 98 career dropbacks and will in all likelihood still be navigating a learning curve at least for the early portion of the season, potentially resulting in up and down play as we saw in the preseason finale against Cincinnati.
However, on the flip side and as I highlighted recently, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic as well.
For starters, on both sides of the ball the Colts should be quite goo in the trenches, and as the old saying goes, if you can control the line of scrimmage, you can control the game.
Richardson will also have plenty of help around him with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, along with the addition of AD Mitchell, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs appearing poised to make big jumps this season, and the always reliable Michael Pittman.
There is also something to be said for the continuity and familiarity of being in Shane Steichen’s offense for a second season.
The recipe for a successful season for the Colts certainly exists, and I would guess many of the 20,000 simulated seasons by ESPN’s FPI has things turning out that way. But, like any unproven team, the test for the Colts will be turning that potential into results on Sundays.