There’s a lot on the line when the New Orleans Saints host the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. And it’s a lot to consider no matter where you fall on the Saints fan spectrum: what means more to you, a playoff berth or a higher draft pick?
Let’s run some numbers. The 2021 NFL Predictions tool at FiveThirtyEight has given the Saints a 53% chance of reaching the postseason going into this Week 16 Dolphins game. A win would help boost New Orleans’ chances to 71%, better than the two teams ahead of them (the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles), while a loss drops them all the way down to 34%. A tied game keeps their playoff odds steady at 52%.
But how do those results impact the 49ers and Eagles — the current sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC — directly? Let’s dig in with an assist from ESPN’s 2021 NFL Playoff Machine. Both squads currently have achieved 8-7 records, just ahead of the Saints at 7-7. New Orleans winning on Monday night would create a three-team tie for those two wild-card spots, which would be decided by current divisional records (per NFL tiebreaking procedures). Philadelphia has the edge there, making the Eagles the sixth seed, the Niners the seventh, and keeping the Saints eighth. For now.
A New Orleans loss wouldn’t dramatically change the current standings. The Saints would be 7-8 just like the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons, entering another three-way tie for the eighth seed rather than holding it alone. But a tie would be slightly better, maintaining New Orleans’ .500 winning percentage rather than Minnesota and Atlanta’s .467, and thus their grip on the eighth seed.
So there’s what you need to know if you’re eyeing a playoff berth. Root for a win or, failing that, hope for a tie. And don’t be too bummed if the Saints lose. They still have two divisional games coming up with an opportunity to turn the tide once some players return from the COVID-19 reserve list.
But what if you’re already daydreaming about spending a high draft pick on a wide receiver or a quarterback next April? Let’s run through the variables impacting New Orleans’ projected draft order.
Right now, hours before kickoff with Miami, the Saints are projected by Tankathon to own the 15th overall draft pick in 2022. A win against the Dolphins raises their record to 8-7, slotting them behind the 7-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers at the 16th pick (ahead of the 8-7 Los Angeles Chargers and 8-7 Las Vegas Raiders, who have seen a tougher strength of schedule than New Orleans to this point in the season). So don’t sweat a setback if the Saints win, budding draftniks.
With that said, a loss wouldn’t really lift the Saints up to a much better pick, either. They would share the same record as four other teams, and end up at the 13th overall selection behind Atlanta, Minnesota, and the Denver Broncos, with the Cleveland Browns trailing them (due to a higher strength of schedule). And a tie would keep the Saints at 15th. So, again, not much to bemoan or celebrate from a draft perspective with a win, loss, or tie.
But that comes back to what’s important to you as a fan. If your week is ruined when the Saints lose, then you already know to root for a win. If you’re focused on the bigger picture and want this season to hurry up and end, that’s your choice. Just don’t be a sicko and hope for a tie.
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