The Carolina Panthers are in for a tough time in 2020. Their roster is one of the weakest in the league, so even if they benefit from brilliant coaching by Matt Rhule and the rest of his staff it’s extremely unlikely they’ll have a winning record or compete for a playoff spot.
On the bright side, there are some solid playmakers at the offensive skill positions. While the situation at tight end is thin, they’re relatively loaded at wide receiver and running back. Pro Football Focus has Carolina’s receiver group ranked No. 8 in the league.
While this is the strongest part of the roster, they’re far from perfect. One area they’ll need to work on is drops, which were a significant problem in 2019. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers dropped 33 passes last season, the fifth-most in the NFL.
Here’s how they broke down.
WR Jarius Wright: eight (13.8% drop rate)
WR Curtis Samuel: seven (6.7% drop rate)
RB Christian McCaffrey: seven (4.9% drop rate)
WR D.J. Moore: four (3% drop rate)
TE Greg Olsen: three (3.7% drop rate)
TE Ian Thomas: three (10% drop rate)
RB Reggie Bonnafon: one (11.1% drop rate)
Not ideal. We’re predicting an improvement this year, though.
First, the worst offender last year was obviously Wright, who previously had been a reliable target on third down if nothing else. His 2020 option was declined so they won’t have his drop rate holding them back.
There’s also a lot of variance with this stat, so even if Wright was still around it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the numbers to bounce back in the team’s favor this coming season.
For example, seven drops for McCaffrey was a lot but the previous year he only had one, per Pro Football Reference. PFF actually counted zero on 124 targets. Samuel should also benefit from the law of averages. He only dropped two passes during the 2018 season – a much more respectable 3.1% drop rate.
The one we’re most concerned about is Thomas, who may see his role grow more than any other starter on offense this season. Drops have been an issue for him since coming into the league – he dropped three balls in 2018 on 49 targets, a relatively high 6.1%. Thomas has flashed after the catch and has the athleticism to become a legitimate weapon, but until he cleans up this part of his game it will be difficult for him to reach his potential.
Overall expect fewer drops, especially if Thomas can cut his down.
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