With a 7-4 record, the Houston Texans’ odds of obtaining a first-round bye are slim. So slim, in fact, that Football Outsiders gives them a 0.1% chance of claiming the No. 1 seed and 2.2% chance to get the No. 2 one. However, there is a chance.
For the Texans to get that precious first-round bye, defeating the 10-1 New England Patriots — who possess the top seed — on Sunday is a must. They also must root for the Los Angeles Rams, who face the second-seed Baltimore Ravens (8-2) on Monday.
Baltimore then must lose to the hands of the 10-1 San Francisco 49ers next Sunday.
If Houston defeats the Patriots and the NFC West dominates the Ravens, the seeding would go as so:
- Patriots (10-2)
- Ravens (8-4)
- Texans (8-4)
- Chiefs (8-4)
Let’s assume the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Oakland Raiders.
The Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Texans if both are 8-4. Houston has the same over the Kansas City Chiefs.
From there on, the Ravens must drop a game on a relatively easy schedule post-49ers. The most glaring possibility of that happening comes in Week 14 when they travel to Buffalo to face the 8-3 Bills.
Say the Bills defeat the Ravens, Baltimore would be, at the time, 8-5. If the Texans were to beat the hapless Denver Broncos in the same week, after defeating the Patriots, they would stand at 9-4. No matter if Kansas City wins, Houston stays on top if they have the same record.
The Texans would not be able to rest at 9-4. They must win-out, meaning they would have to beat the Tennessee Titans twice and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sandwiched in-between the divisional bouts. If so, Houston would finish at 12-4.
If the Texans finish 12-4, they could gain the advantage of the first-round bye. However, they need help. The Ravens must drop three games, which may not happen considering their talent. As for the Patriots, they must completely fold by losing four of their next five — not a Bill Belichick move.
In culmination, the Texans’ only chance to gain that precious first-round bye stands within running the table and the Ravens choking away their second-seed. Houston stands at a 0.1% chance for the top-seed and 2.2% one for the second-seed for a reason. It’s going to be tough to avoid the wildcard round.