Scheming the secondary
And the reason that Reid might not comply is because he has Mahomes. And Travis Kelce. And Hill, and Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson and yes Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
So when the Chiefs put the football in the air, how will Belichick try and slow down this passing game? With a combination of matchups and coverages.
The Patriots have built their defense in a way that enables them to play matchups in the secondary. Beyond Gilmore, one of the best cornerbacks in the league, they have players like Devin McCourty, J.C. Jackson, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Williams, Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger. A lot of talent and a lot of ways to handle matchups in the secondary.
One common tool Belichick employs is a bit counter-intuitive, but it is something he has done for years: Take his best coverage player, put him on the offense’s second receiver, and leave him on an island. Last year when these teams squared off in the regular season that meant a lot of Gilmore on Watkins, left on an island, trusting that his top CB will handle the assignment.
When he does, that now gives you a big numbers advantage on the rest of the receivers. Even bigger if you are doing it out of a 3-2-6 or even a 1-3-7 package like the Patriots used at times.
This is an example of this in action. This is a 3rd and 9 from the first quarter of that regular season meeting last year. The Chiefs come out with Mahomes in the shotgun and the Patriots respond with that 1-3-7 package, and Gilmore on an island over Watkins.
Kansas City runs a crossing route concept, with Hill and Robinson racing by each other from opposite sides of the field, but it is J.C. Jackson who comes down with the interception:
How did this come about? The Patriots use that 1-3-7 package and leave Gilmore on an island at the top of the screen against Watkins. Then they implement a Belichick/Nick Saban coverage known as 1-Cross, which is a Cover 1 coverage that uses a safety as a robber right at the first down marker, in this case Devin McCourty:
What is the impact of this coverage on the play? When Mahomes drops he sees Hill racing across the field from right to left, towards Devin McCourty, with Jonathan Jones in coverage. He then assumes that Hill is going to run into a manufactured double-coverage, so his eyes come to Robinson in his crossing route working from the left, with Jackson in single-coverage:
There is one more twist coming. Because Jones, instead of running with Hill as Mahomes expects, simply passes him off to McCourty and peels back to become the robber. This creates the double-team, but not the one Mahomes expected:
Now, Jones stays over the top of Robinson, which allows Jackson to cut underneath the receiver and make the interception.
This works because Belichick trusts McCourty, as well as the rest of the secondary. Gilmore is stride-for-stride with Watkins on that vertical route, and Jones/Jackson execute their ends of the bargain to perfection.
Another common means of handling the Chiefs, at least on paper, is to play zone coverage and try to keep everything in front of you. That is what the Patriots did on this play, dropping into a Cover 2 look and forcing a checkdown to LeSean McCoy:
Now, with dedicated safety help to both sides of the field, Belichick is comfortable with whatever matchups are created. At the bottom of the screen you see Gilmore on Hill. Belichick might not rely on that matchup in man coverage situations, but he is okay with it provided there is safety help over the top.
We have not talked about defending the tight end too much, so I will highlight something on both of these clips. In the first example Kelce is in a wing to the right, and on this second example he is in a Y-Iso alignment on the left. On both plays, the Patriots jam him off the line, forcing him to delay his release downfield. This is something Belichick will do and do often, especially with Kelce. The first time that Mahomes faced Belichick, he threw a disasterous interception in the end zone right before halftime.
Here’s that play, and then how it happened:
If you notice on this play, Dont’a Hightower aligns on Kelce who is detached from the tackle and chips him on the TE’s release. Then, the Patriots bracket Kelce with Chung using outside leverage and Duron Harmon playing him to the inside. Mahomes is flushed from the pocket (in part by Hightower) and still looks for his tight end, and the pass is intercepted.
These little wrinkles are where that light front comes in to play against the pass. Not only do you dare the offense to run, but if they decide to throw, you have the numbers advantage to do things like this on the second- and third-levels of the defense. You can jam tight ends off the line. You can play Cover 2 or Cover 2 Man Under. You can keep the numbers in your favor, keep things in front of you, and force Mahomes to either sustain and execute on long drives.