How Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott rank as a crime-fighting, pass-game duo

Standard metrics don’t do justice to the incredible start to Amari Cooper’s tenure in Dallas

Dallas has built its identity in the last decade on running the football.  They’ve had a 1,000+ yard rusher in five of the last six years, with the lone exception being Ezekiel Elliott’s 983 yards in a 10-game 2017 season.  And while Zeke is still on pace for 300 carries in 2019, there are signs that an offense built around the passing game will give them the best chance to win.

And they’ve finally got a receiver paired with Dak Prescott who can lead them through it.

Through nine games this season, Amari Cooper’s 848 yards is already more than any Cowboys receiver has had in a single season since Dez Bryant tallied 1,320 in 2014.  His connection with Prescott was there from their very first game together, catching a touchdown pass on just his third target as a Cowboy.

There’s been an interesting question of which QB-WR combination has been the best in recent years floating around, and much like the MVP discussion, Prescott and Cooper have been frequently absent from the conversation.  While pairs like Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, or Matt Ryan and Julio Jones tend to be the first places people go, Dak and Amari have a strong case that often goes ignored.  Let’s change that.

Completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) is becoming more and more common in quarterback evaluation.  It takes recent NFL data and calculated the likelihood of a given pass being completed based on target depth and side of the field.  Next Gen Stats also calculates a version of this that factors in receiver separation, but we get a very close approximation using our own data.  I took the calculation for CPOE (courtesy of The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin) and modified it slightly to the CPOE for wide receivers.  From there, we can combine that with a receiver’s actual catch rate to find their catches over expected.  This is useful because while efficiency is important, volume also matters when talking about wide receivers.  Receivers who command more targets are more important to an offense than efficient receivers who don’t get targeted much.  Catches over expectation aren’t very sticky year-to-year, but they do correlate well with total receiving EPA, so this should be considered more of a descriptive stat rather than a predictive one.  Here is every receiver season since 2010, with Cowboys highlighted.

Cooper’s nine games in 2019 are already better than the nine games he played last year, and approaching Dez Bryant’s two best totals.  And remember, this is a cumulative statistic.  Cooper has seven more games to go this year.  There’s a really good chance he finishes with the best numbers in a single Cowboys season this decade.

To compare him to some other notable wideouts in the NFL, let’s run the same numbers, but just during the time frame of Cooper’s tenure with Dallas.  Since Week 9 of 2018, only two wide receivers have more catches over expectation than Amari Cooper.

Cooper ranks seventh in total EPA, but he’s also caught more balls than expected than every receiver but Michael Thomas and Tyler Lockett.  He has been a clear No. 1 receiver since the trade, and has helped elevate Prescott’s game when he’s on the field.  Here’s how the Cowboys receivers look by CPOE and EPA/target.

Prescott’s CPOE is the vertical red line, the team’s EPA/target average the horizontal one.

Prescott’s CPOE is at its peak when targeting Cooper and tight end Jason Witten, but his efficiency (measured by EPA/attempt) is miles ahead when throwing at Cooper vs any other receiver.

A look into the receiving success over time since Cooper’s arrival paints another great picture of how important he’s been to this offense.  Here’s the cumulative EPA for each Cowboys receiver with at least 20 targets since Week 9 of 2018.

Nobody even comes close on this team to matching Cooper’s production or his consistency.

The Cowboys’ offense has been overshadowed by a strict commitment to the run game, but it’s time to acknowledge that their passing offense is not only one of the best in the league, and not only features an MVP candidate at quarterback.  It’s also got a star wide receiver producing at a level that rivals any other player in the NFL.

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