How a 22-team return will affect the Celtics’ 2020 NBA draft odds

The new format and its draft odds will likely benefit the Boston Celtics’ potential draft odds, though not through their own draft picks.

ESPN senior writer Zach Lowe related how the new return-to-play format approved by the NBA’s Board of Governors will affect the NBA Draft Thursday.

The approved format will see 22 teams descend on Lake Buena Vista, Florida to resume the 2019-20 season at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex in Walt Disney World at the end of July with many changes to the usual course of a season due to the pandemic which delayed the season to begin with.

For the purposes of sussing out how these changes will affect the 2020 NBA Draft (now to be held on October 15th) many have been wondering how this will impact draft odds compared to previous seasons.

Lowe relates that for all 16 teams that make the playoffs — whether by record alone or qualifying through a potential play-in game — draft order will be by reverse order of how the team performed up to the March 11th suspension of league activities and seeding games combined.

The lottery would be comprised of the eight teams not traveling to Florida for the season restart and the six teams who make the trip to the Disney-hosted ‘bubble’ but do not make the playoffs, and odds would only be derived from their records as of March 11th.

As has been noted by the Celtics Wire previously, this leaves in place the unlikely-but-possible chance that the first round draft pick owed the team by the Memphis Grizzlies could conceivably become a lottery pick.

Should Memphis manage to fall in the standings enough to trigger the play-in game scenario in the West, their 2020 first round pick would enter the lottery, and convey to Boston so long as it is drawn above the top-six protection the Grizzlies placed upon it.

With the Grizzlies just 3.5 games behind the Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings, it’s definitely a candidate for the new format.

Any eighth seed within four games of the ninth will have to beat that opponent two times in a row to advance to the postseason, meaning it is actually realistic for Memphis to end up in the lottery, even if it is still more likely they will not.

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